September 30 2024

1 Israel Reshapes the Middle East by Decapitating Hezbollah
2 County-level Survey Shows Government Reliance Soars from 1% in 1970 to 53% in 2022
3 ICE Data Reveal 425,000 Convicted Criminals Among Non-Detained Illegal Immigrants
4 Longshoremen on East and Gulf Coasts Threaten Strike Tomorrow Amidst Contract Dispute
5 Young Men Floundering in Labor Market as 18-24 Age Group Skews Conservative
Sports
9/30/1889 Wyoming legislators write the first state constitution to grant women the vote

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1 Israel Reshapes the Middle East by Decapitating Hezbollah

A Israel-Hezbollah Summary  

In less than two weeks, Israel managed to do the following: 

1. explode pagers used by mid-level Hezbollah officers, injuring many 

2. explode walkie-talkies used by lower rank-and-file Hezbollah only 24 hours after the pager explosion action 

3. assassinate key senior Hezbollah commanders via precise strikes 

4. bomb key Hezbollah missile infrastructure sites 

5. assassinate Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah (along with remaining officers and key IRGC senior officers) 

This has been a spectacular set of strikes by Israel, resulting not only in the destruction of Hezbollah’s internal communications systems, but also the decapitation of its entire senior command, effectively paralyzing the paramilitary force. Who is in charge of Hezbollah now? No one knows. Do they have a new chain of command in place? No one knows. What will its remains do? No one knows.  

B Iran’s muted response (so far)  

The idea was simple: When a big war with Israel broke out, all the members of the Iranian-backed network of militias in the Middle East known as the “axis of resistance” would join the fight in a coordinated push toward their shared goal of destroying the Jewish state. Iran came up with the strategy and invested tremendous resources to build each group’s fighting abilities and connect them to one another. But the axis’s response as Israel has pummeled Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent weeks — killing many of its commanders and assassinating its leader — has so far been feeble, suggesting that the axis is weaker and more fragmented than many in the region had expected and that Iran feared that widening the war could cause Israel to turn its firepower on Tehran.  

C Jared Kushner (OPINION)  

September 27th is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough.  I have spent countless hours studying Hezbollah and there is not an expert on earth who thought that what Israel has done to decapitate and degrade them was possible.  This is significant because Iran is now fully exposed. The reason why their nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel. Iran spent the last forty years building this capability as its deterrent. Iranian leadership is stuck in the old Middle East, while their neighbors in the GCC [ed note: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a regional political and economic union consisting of six Middle Eastern countries. These countries are: 1. Bahrain 2. Kuwait 3. Oman 4. Qatar 5. Saudi Arabia 6. United Arab Emirates (UAE)]  are sprinting toward the future by investing in their populations and infrastructure. They are becoming dynamic magnets for talent and investment while Iran falls further behind. As the Iranian proxies and threats dissipate, regional security and prosperity will rise for Christians, Muslims and Jews alike.  Israel now finds itself with the threat from Gaza mostly neutralized and the opportunity to neutralize Hezbollah in the north. It’s unfortunate how we got here but maybe there can be a silver lining in the end. After the brilliant, rapid-fire tactical successes of the pagers, radios, and targeting of leadership, Hezbollah’s massive weapon cache is unguarded and unmanned. Most of Hezbollah fighters are hiding in their tunnels. Anyone still around was not important enough to carry a pager or be invited to a leadership meeting. Iran is reeling, as well, insecure and unsure how deeply its own intelligence has been penetrated. Failing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.  today, with the confirmed killing of Nasrallah and at least 16 top commanders eliminated in just nine days, was the first day I started thinking about a Middle East without Iran’s fully loaded arsenal aimed at Israel. So many more positive outcomes are possible.

Article Source: Niccolo Solodo, NYT, @jaredkusher

2 County-level Survey Shows Government Reliance Soars from 1% in 1970 to 53% in 2022

Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.  The country hasn’t always been this reliant on government support. In 1970, government safety-net money accounted for significant income in fewer than 1% of America's counties, new research by the bipartisan think tank Economic Innovation Group finds. These counties, colored here in gold, were among the nation’s most economically distressed, such as those in Appalachia.  

1970

By 2022, 53%—more than half of all U.S counties—drew at least a quarter of their income from government aid.  

2022

The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.

Article Source: WSJ

3 ICE Data Reveal 425,000 Convicted Criminals Among Non-Detained Illegal Immigrants

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants with sex offenses and homicide convictions could be loose on the streets, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data provided to lawmakers this week.  The agency provided data to Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, about national data for illegal immigrants with criminal charges or convictions. The data, as of July 2024, is broken down by those in detention, and those who are not in detention – known as the non-detained docket.  The non-detained docket includes illegal immigrants who have final orders of removal or are going through removal proceedings but are not detained in ICE custody. There are currently more than 7 million people on that docket. The data says that, among those not in detention, there are 425,431 convicted criminals and 222,141 with pending criminal charges.  Those include 62,231 convicted of assault, 14,301 convicted of burglary, 56,533 with drug convictions and 13,099 convicted of homicide. An additional 2,521 have kidnapping convictions and 15,811 have sexual assault convictions.  There are an additional 1,845 with pending homicide charges, 42,915 with assault charges, 3,266 with burglary charges and 4,250 with assault charges.

Article Source: Fox News

4 Longshoremen on East and Gulf Coasts Threaten Strike Tomorrow Amidst Contract Dispute

Longshoremen on the East and Gulf Coasts are likely to strike on Tuesday, halting most activity at some of the busiest U.S. ports, if their union and employers fail to end a monthslong standoff over a new labor contract. The walkout by members of the International Longshoremen’s Association would cost the economy billions of dollars a day. President Biden can use a federal labor law to force the longshoremen back to work, but on Sunday he said he was not considering using that power. In recent days, top government officials have pressed both sides to reach a deal.

Article Source: NYT

5 Young Men Floundering in Labor Market as 18-24 Age Group Skews Conservative

A Young men floundering in labor market  

The life trajectories of America’s sons and daughters are diverging.  Presented with a more-equal playing field, young women are seizing the opportunities in front of them, while young men are floundering. The phenomenon has developed over the past decade, but was supercharged by the pandemic, which derailed careers, schooling and isolated friends and families. The result has big implications for the economy.  More women ages 25 to 34 have entered the workforce in recent years than ever. The share of young men in the labor market, meanwhile, hasn’t grown in a decade. 

B 18-24 yo, especially men, skew conservative  

A new trend has emerged in American politics: The very youngest voters — 18-to-24-year-olds — say they're more conservative than the cohort that's just older, according to the latest Harvard Youth Poll. This new trend — which is true for both genders and emerged only in the last few years — is especially pronounced with men. The younger generation of men is more likely to identify as conservative than as liberal, a stunning flip. It's rare for a group of Americans that young to be more conservative than their immediate predecessors. 26% of men ages 18-24 say they identify as conservative — five points higher than 25-to-29-year-old men. Among women, the younger group is more conservative by three points. Moderates make up the biggest chunk of both men and women young voters.

Article Source: WSJ, Axios

Sports

In a thrilling weekend of college football, No. 4 Alabama claimed a dramatic victory over No. 2 Georgia, with 17-year-old phenom Ryan Williams delivering a game-winning 75-yard touchdown in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Alabama moved up to No. 1 in the latest AP Poll. Meanwhile, No. 6 Ole Miss suffered their first loss of the season to unranked Kentucky, and No. 23 Kansas State dominated No. 20 Oklahoma State in a wild weekend of upsets. On the MLB front, the Chicago White Sox set a modern-era record with their 121st loss, capping off a historic season (the bad kind).  

AP College Football Poll

9/30/1889 Wyoming legislators write the first state constitution to grant women the vote

Sources

1. A https://open.substack.com/pub/niccolo/p/decapitation?r=d9vo5&utm_medium=ios
B https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/middleeast/iran-axis-of-resistance.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
B https://x.com/jaredkushner/status/1840181053572690060?s=42

2. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/americans-government-aid-social-security-medicare-unemployment-34e92b19?st=bHAq1m&reflink=article_copyURL_share

3. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tens-thousands-illegal-immigrants-sexual-assault-homicide-convictions-roaming-us-streets

4. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/business/port-strike-dockworkers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

5. A https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/young-american-men-lost-c1d799f7
B https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll