September 20 2024

1. Clandestine Strikes in Lebanon Escalate Mideast Tensions, Risk Wider War
2. Exploding Pagers Sound Global Alarm on Supply-Chain Security 
3. In Ominous Reflection of U.S. Political Climates, Liberals Buy Guns
4. Naturalized U.S. Citizens Reach Record Numbers Ahead of Election 
5. Friday Ukraine update: us weapons stockpile dwindles, more Russian troops, and new silk roads
6. Sports: Ohtani hits historic 50-50
7. 9/20/1519 Magellan sets sail from Spain

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1 Clandestine Strikes in Lebanon Escalate Mideast Tensions, Risk Wider War

Ed note: In 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated in the Balkans, a region in Eastern Europe known for its perennial unrest. This assassination triggered the mobilization of the great powers of Europe, which culminated in World War I. The events and atmosphere leading to the war were later chronicled in Barbara Tuchman’s book ‘The Guns of August’.

This week, clandestine operations in Lebanon killed 37 people and wounded 3,000 more, with Hezbollah fighters being targeted through exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. As this conflict escalates, the Mideast, another region of perennial unrest, has the potential to become the Balkans of the 21st century. The scariest scenario involves Hezbollah and Israel engaging in a full-scale conflict, with Hezbollah supported by Iran. If this occurs, the United States would likely be drawn in, with the more remote but possible chance of Russia and China, Iranian sponsors, being drawn in as well. The outlines of a world conflict are starting to emerge.

None of this is guaranteed, but the situation is certainly very dangerous. The potential for escalation into a broader conflict remains high, and the stakes are significant.

Israel launched a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, moments before the militant group’s leader said two days of debilitating attacks on its members amounted to a declaration of war. The strikes Thursday were more extensive than in previous days and were timed to coincide with a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was addressing a wave of device explosions before cadres who were shocked by the scale of the attack. Israeli jets flew over Beirut, setting off sonic booms as they have done repeatedly in recent months in an effort to intimidate the group. “This criminal act is a major terrorist operation and amounts to a declaration of war,” Nasrallah said. Nasrallah promised retribution for the intelligence operation, which caused pagers and walkie-talkies carried by thousands of the militant group’s members to explode, killing 37 and injuring nearly 3,000. The attack was one of the worst security breaches in the organization’s history and struck a blow to the group’s internal communications—both by destroying the devices and by causing members to doubt the security of their own networks.

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2 Exploding Pagers Sound Global Alarm on Supply-Chain Security

Thousands of pagers and other devices exploding in Lebanon this week mark a new and deadly escalation in the use of supply chains against adversaries, giving new urgency to global leaders’ drive to reduce their dependence on technologies from rivals. Lebanese officials believe the gadgets were rigged with explosives as part of an elaborate attack allegedly by Israel on Hezbollah, penetrating the Iran-backed group’s procurement chain with links from Taiwan to Hungary. While booby-trapped devices have been used in spycraft for years, the scale and violence of the attacks in Lebanon - which killed at least 37 people, including two children, and injured about 2,300 more - alarmed even some seasoned officials. They fear the globalized supply chains that help produce cheap goods and power global growth could become weapons in the hands of foreign adversaries.

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3 In Ominous Reflection of U.S. Political Climates, Liberals Buy Guns

American gun culture has long been dominated by conservative, white men. Now, in a marked change, a burgeoning number of liberals are buying firearms, according to surveys and fast-growing gun groups drawing minorities and progressives. “It’s a group of people who five years ago would never have considered buying a gun,” says Jennifer Hubbert, an anthropology professor at Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Ore., who has researched liberal gun owners. Historically, it wasn’t unusual for Democrats to own guns, with many more of them living in rural areas. Also, hunting was much more popular. But starting in the early ’90s, gun ownership among Democrats dropped significantly. Increasingly divisive political battles over the role of firearms in American society led the Democratic Party to become an advocate for gun regulation. Republicans became the party of gun rights. Now, today’s Democrats are rediscovering guns. Twenty-nine percent of Democrats or those leaning Democrat said they had a gun at home in 2022, up from a four-decade low of 22% in 2010, according to a long-running survey by NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan research organization. In 2022, 55% of Republicans had a gun in their home, up 3 percentage points since 2010, the survey of about 3,500 adults found. In a nationally representative 2023 survey of about 3,000 people by the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, about 11% of respondents had purchased a gun since 2020. Among Democratic gun buyers since 2020, more than half were first-time owners, compared with less than a quarter of Republicans, according to researchers who analyzed the data.

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4 Naturalized U.S. Citizens Reach Record Numbers Ahead of Election

More immigrants than ever before call the United States home. Many of them have become U.S. citizens through naturalization, making them eligible to vote in November’s presidential election. In fact, naturalized citizens’ numbers are growing as the federal government processes citizenship applications at its fastest rate in years. Naturalized citizens make up a record number of eligible voters, according to the 2022 American Community Survey. That year, 23.8 million naturalized citizens were eligible to vote, accounting for about 10% of the U.S. electorate. The number of adults who are naturalized citizens has grown steadily in recent decades. Between 2012 and 2022 alone, their numbers grew by 32%, from 18.0 million to 23.8 million. During the same period, the number of U.S.-born adults increased by 8%, from 202 million to more than 217 million. Most naturalized citizen eligible voters have lived in the U.S. for more than 20 years. About three-quarters of immigrant eligible voters (73%) have lived in the U.S. for more than two decades. Another 20% have lived in the country for 11 to 20 years, while relatively few (8%) have been in the U.S. for a decade or less. Among naturalized citizen eligible voters, more than half (55%) live in just four states: California, Florida, New York, and Texas.

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5 Friday Ukraine Update: U.S. Weapons Stockpile Dwindles, More Russian Troops, and New Silk Roads

A US weapons inventory

US military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller in recent months, as the stockpiles of weapons and equipment that the Pentagon is willing to send Kyiv from its own inventory have dwindled. The shift comes amid concerns about US military readiness being impacted as US arms manufacturers play catchup to the huge demand created by the war against Russia. The shortage means the Biden administration still has $6 billion in funds available to arm and equip Ukraine, but the Pentagon lacks the inventory it is willing to deliver more than two years into the war, two US officials told CNN. “It’s about the stockpiles we have on our shelves, what [the Ukrainians] are asking for, and whether we can meet those requests with what we currently have” without impacting readiness, one of the officials said. The Pentagon has asked Congress for more time to spend that money before it expires at the end of September, according to Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary. It’s a stark reversal from last winter, when the administration was pleading with lawmakers for additional funding to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

B Russian troop increase

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered Russia’s military to expand by 180,000 troops, an upsurge that would bring its total personnel up to nearly 2.4 million, with 1.5 million active combat troops. This is the third expansion of Russia’s military since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The increase will take effect in December. Previous troop expansions included a 137,000 increase in August 2022 and a partial mobilization in September 2022, which recruited 300,000 military reservists. The mobilization sparked protests and pushed many Russians to flee the country, particularly from ethnic minority regions. In December 2023, Putin ordered an additional 170,000 troops, bringing the total to 1.32 million at that time. 

C New Silk Roads I

Russia started producing a new long-range attack drone called the Garpiya-A1 last year using Chinese engines and parts, which it has deployed in the war in Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents seen by Reuters. The intelligence – which included a production contract for the new drone, company correspondence on the manufacturing process and financial documents - indicated that IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned weapons maker Almaz-Antey, produced more than 2,500 Garpiyas from July 2023 to July 2024. Garpiya would reduce Russian reliance on Iranian drones, expert says.

D New Silk Roads II

Russia has been secretly acquiring sensitive goods in India and explored building facilities in the country to secure components for its war effort, according to Russian state correspondence seen by the Financial Times. Moscow’s industry and trade ministry, which oversees defence production to support Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, drew up confidential plans in October 2022 to spend about Rs82bn ($1bn at the time) on securing critical electronics through channels hidden from western governments. The plan, revealed in letters to a shadowy trade promotion body with strong links to the Russian security services, aimed to use “significant reserves” of rupees amassed by Russian banks from booming oil sales to India. It saw India as an alternative market to source crucial goods “previously supplied from unfriendly countries”.

[Sources: CNN, Cipher Brief, Reuters, Financial Times]

6 Sports: Shohei Ohtani's Historic 50-50 Season Propels Dodgers to Postseason

Superhuman. Otherworldly. Unbelievable. One of a kind. These descriptors have all been used to explain Shohei Ohtani's MVP-winning career. On Thursday afternoon, Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to have 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in the same season, leading the Dodgers to a 20-4 win over the Miami Marlins and clinching their 12th consecutive postseason berth. Ohtani's performance included six hits in six at-bats, three home runs, two steals, and 10 RBIs.

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9/20/1519 Magellan sets sail from Spain

Portuguese navigator Ferdinand Magellan sets sail from Spain in an effort to find a western sea route to the rich Spice Islands of Indonesia. In command of five ships and 270 men, Magellan sailed to West Africa and then to Brazil, where he searched the South American coast for a strait that would take him to the Pacific. He searched the Río de la Plata, a large estuary south of Brazil, for a way through; failing, he continued south along the coast of Patagonia. At the end of March 1520, the expedition set up winter quarters at Port St. Julian. On October 21, he finally discovered the strait he had been seeking. The Strait of Magellan, as it became known, is located near the tip of South America, separating Tierra del Fuego and the continental mainland. From there, he entered the Pacific. By the end, the men were out of food and chewed the leather parts of their gear to keep themselves alive. On March 6, 1521, the expedition landed at the island of Guam. Magellan met with the chief of Cebú, who after converting to Christianity persuaded the Europeans to assist him in conquering a rival tribe on the neighboring island of Mactan. In fighting on April 27, Magellan was hit by a poisoned arrow and left to die by his retreating comrades. After Magellan’s death, the survivors, in two ships, sailed on to the Moluccas and loaded the hulls with spice. One ship attempted, unsuccessfully, to return across the Atlantic. The other ship, the Victoria, continued west under the command of Basque navigator Juan Sebastian de Elcano. The vessel sailed across the Indian Ocean, rounded the Cape of Good Hope, and arrived at the Spanish port of Sanlucar de Barrameda on September 6, 1522, becoming the first ship to circumnavigate the globe.