September 11 2024

FLASH Hurricane Francine to hit Louisiana as Cat 1- 2 storm today
1 US Home Prices Surge, Housing Supply Shrinks
2 Congress Faces Urgent Deadline to Prevent Government Shutdown
3 AI Triggers Historic Investment Surge, Uncertain Profit Timelines
4 Election Roundup: 2 debate reactions, Trump’s DIY spin, Taylor Swift endorses Harris
5 China’s Economy Falters as Confidence and Transparency Erode
9/11/2001 Attack on America

See the new Ad Astra Podcast! Released on Apple and Spotify around 8a CST.

Last year’s “Legacy of 9/11” column

FLASH Hurricane Francine to hit Louisiana as Cat 1- 2 storm today

1 US Home Prices Surge, Housing Supply Shrinks

People often ask why Americans have such bad “vibes” about the US economy when it is outperforming Europe and Japan by a wide margin. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, home prices adjusted for inflation are up around 2 per cent in Europe, 25 per cent in Japan but more than 50 per cent in the US. In fact, real prices in the US are currently 25 per cent above the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Government has helped to set this record in many ways, not least through generous federal mortgage lending subsidies, which inflate demand, and through “not in my backyard” regulations usually imposed by local authorities trying to defend the suburban idyll — but inadvertently worsening the supply shortage. Astonishingly, the US is building no more new homes and 80 per cent fewer “entry level” homes than it was half a century ago — when the population was much smaller. And the time it takes to complete a new multi-unit dwelling has doubled, with most of that increase coming in the past two decades — as “NIMBY” resistance spread. Since 2000, according to Zillow, the average household income has doubled but the average price for its listings has tripled to $360,000. Over that period, the time it takes to save for a 20 per cent down payment has risen by nearly half to eleven years. And the share of income that goes to mortgage and insurance payments has risen by more than a third to 35 per cent — into the unaffordable zone. Because developers are building homes much more slowly than Americans are forming new households, the shortage is growing by several hundred thousand residences a year. While consumer price inflation has receded to below 3 per cent, home prices are still rising by more than 5 per cent a year. True, voters continue to express anxiety about the cost of basic staples, but food and clothing account for a smaller share of household expenses than in the 1970s. Housing takes up a greater and growing share

Article Source: FT

2 Congress Faces Urgent Deadline to Prevent Government Shutdown

Congress returned to Washington on Monday with limited time to prevent a government shutdown and November’s elections already clouding conversations over federal financing. Funding for the federal government expires Sept. 30, when the 2024 fiscal year ends. Without new legislation, the government would shut down while millions of voters, including in some battleground states, are already able to cast their votes. Congress is set to consider a stopgap funding bill, called a continuing resolution or CR, to keep operations going at current levels and buy legislators more time to craft annual spending bills. Congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden united Monday to reject House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) effort to pair an unusually long six-month CR with unrelated legislation to require voters to show proof of citizenship before registering to vote in federal elections. Biden threatened to veto Johnson’s proposal, which the House could vote on as soon as this week.

Article Source: WaPo

3 AI Triggers Historic Investment Surge, Uncertain Profit Timelines

Generative artificial intelligence has sparked one of the biggest spending booms in modern American history, as companies and investors bet hundreds of billions of dollars that the technology will revolutionize the global economy and one day lead to massive profits. The question is when, and even whether, all those investments will pay off. Apps like OpenAI’s ChatGPT have attracted hundreds of millions of users, but relatively few people are paying for premium versions and businesses are still experimenting with how generative AI can increase their productivity. Nonetheless, the biggest tech companies are putting record amounts of money into capital spending, primarily for the hardware needed to develop and run AI models.

Article Source: WSJ

4 Election Roundup: 2 debate reactions, Trump’s DIY spin, Taylor Swift endorses Harris

From the Left: Charles M. Blow, NYT opinion columnist 

This was a clear win for Harris. She needled Trump, rebutted and debunked him and still offered a positive message and vision for America’s future. Trump brought darkness; Harris brought light.  

From the Right: Hugh Hewitt, radio talk show host 

Trump did not win the debate but I think he won the election with an assist to ABC because it was so in the tank for Harris that it was repulsive. Voters did see Harris dodge every question that was even slightly difficult and tried to erase her record and Biden’s. Voters expected accountability on the economy, inflation and border but got an ABC buffet of lefty agenda journalism that will not cover for the failures of the past three and a half years. Democrats think they won the debate and the election. It is 2016 all over again.  

Ed note: neither candidate dominated nor fell flat, unlike the Trump-Biden debate in June. This debate will not change how people already feel. 

Trump spins reporters himself 

Though his campaign had dispatched advisers and spokeswomen, close congressional allies and even his running mate to the debate “spin room,” where journalists mix with such surrogates, former President Donald J. Trump bucked tradition. He walked into the room full of reporters less than an hour after the end of his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday night and insisted that he’d delivered a winning performance. “It was the best debate I’ve ever had,” said Mr. Trump, whose matchup against President Biden in June ultimately led Mr. Biden to drop out of the race.  

Taylor Swift endorses Harris 

Taylor Swift said she is voting for Kamala Harris for president, giving the Democratic candidate the endorsement of one of the world’s biggest popstars. She signed the post with “Childless Cat Lady,” a reference to comments made by JD Vance, Trump’s running mate.

Article Source: NYT, X, WSJ

5 China’s Economy Falters as Confidence and Transparency Erode

China’s giant economy faces an equally giant crisis of confidence—and a growing deficit of accurate information is only making things worse. Even as the country wrestles with a property crash, the services sector slowed by one measure in August. Consumers are fed up. Multinational firms are taking money out of China at a record pace and foreign China-watchers are trimming their forecasts for economic growth. The gloom reflects real problems, from half-built houses to bad debts. But it also reflects growing mistrust of information about China. The government is widely believed to be massaging data, suppressing sensitive facts and sometimes offering delusional prescriptions for the economy. This void feeds on itself: the more fragile the economy is, the more knowledge is suppressed and the more nerves fray. This is not just a cyclical problem of confidence. By backtracking on the decades-long policy of partially liberalising the flow of information, China will find it harder to complete its ambition of restructuring the economy around new industries. Like the Soviet Union, it risks instead becoming an example of how autocratic rule is not just illiberal but also inefficient.  

Ed note: Chinas faltering massive economy is one of the biggest stories in the world right now now, from a historical perspective

Article Source: Economist

9/11/2001 Attack on America

Sources

1. https://open.substack.com/pub/adastraperaspera/p/legacy-of-911?r=d9vo5&utm_medium=ios

3. https://www.ft.com/content/babc4862-504d-4143-a89d-714336004e01

4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/09/congress-government-spending-shutdown-deadline/

5. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/artificial-intelligence-investing-charts-7b8e1a97?st=9uirlxkivx5ztda&reflink=article_copyURL_share

6. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/opinion/harris-trump-debate-winner-loser.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare; https://x.com/hughhewitt/status/1833700914013635037?s=61&t=gDkZtWNRSWi2aI32jS5cUg; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/trump-debate-spin-room.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare; https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/taylor-swift-endorses-kamala-harris-b8521a4a?st=d2vs1y5itwl8oaw&reflink=article_copyURL_share

7. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/05/bad-information-is-a-grave-threat-to-chinas-economy