October 29 2024

1. Forgotten Cities Shift Red, Reshaping U.S. Political Landscape
2. Defense Death Spiral: Defense Contractors Provide Less for More
3. Bezos: Media Falls Below Congress in Gallup Trust Poll, Must Change
4. Israeli Strikes Destroy Iran’s Air Defense Gaps, Leaving Them Exposed
5. China Tightens Grip on Rare Earths, Restricting Supply to Foreign Firms
6. Dodgers on Verge of World Series Victory with Game 4 Against Yankees Tonight
October 29, 2003: LeBron James debuts in the NBA

See the new Ad Astra Podcast! Released on Apple and Spotify around 10a CST.

1. Forgotten Cities Shift Red, Reshaping U.S. Political Landscape

In 2007, the academic Lorlene Hoyt and the city planning consultant André Leroux assembled a nationwide list of “forgotten cities” that were old and small, with a population of 15,000 to 150,000 and a median household income of less than $35,000. Recently, the urban researcher Michael Bloomberg updated it. Of the 179 cities now on the list, 37 are in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And leading the way, with 23 cities, is Ohio. Pundits often overlook these sorts of places (they tend to focus on big blue cities, deep-red rural areas and the suburbs in between), but given how clustered these smaller cities are in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they will matter greatly in the battle for both the White House and for control of Congress.  I have visited dozens of these cities. They often have handsome downtowns with stately central squares and ornate, century-old bank buildings that rise 10 or 12 stories, but it can be difficult to find a cup of coffee after 2 p.m. or a place to watch a ballgame on TV at night. The local news is full of the sort of items I found a few weeks ago in a newspaper in Lima, Ohio (population 35,000): a report that the area was getting its 12th Dollar General store and a letter to the editor lamenting the closure of a Dana Incorporated auto-parts plant with 280 jobs. Just as troubling, young people are becoming harder to find; they’re more drawn to thriving larger cities, such as Columbus, which has been vacuuming up strivers from across the state. For decades, these smaller cities leaned Democratic, but in the past decade, they have turned redder. What’s so perplexing to liberals about this shift is that many of the people who left the Democratic Party are doing well for themselves; these cities are full of small-business owners, factory workers and retirees with pensions getting by under a Democratic president. But seeing your small city become a shadow of its former self can open you to a hard-edge populist message even if you yourself are managing. That’s what scholars mean by “shared fate,” and it’s what’s missed when we analyze voting behavior only by income or education level or race.

Article Source: Pro Publica

2. Defense Death Spiral: Defense Contractors Provide Less for More

A basic truth in Washington is that almost every single new weapon system ends up costing significantly more than the one it is replacing. As the cost of weapons increases, the number of systems produced decreases. That’s how the United States ended up with only 21 B-2s, 187 F-22s, and three Zumwalt-class destroyers, rather than the 132, 750, and 32 respectively the military initially promised. This phenomenon creates what is known as the Defense Death Spiral, when the unit cost of new weapons outrace defense budgets. John Boyd and his friends in the Military Reform Movement during the late Cold War years warned us about the military industrial congressional complex 50 years ago. This small band of Pentagon insiders saw with their own eyes how the political economy created by the financial and political connections between the military elite, the defense industry, and society’s ruling class wasted precious resources and produced a series of deeply flawed weapons. President Eisenhower elegantly articulated the dangers of the military industrial congressional complex in 1961, several years before Colonel Boyd and his friends began their work. He warned that only “an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.” This statement remains as true today as it was on that wintery January day 53 years ago. The American people devote ever greater resources to their defense while receiving less and less in return. The Air Force had 10,387 aircraft in 1975 when the Military Reformers began their work in earnest. Today the Air Force has 5,288. The Navy had 559 active ships in 1975. Today the fleet has only 296. The Pentagon’s base budget is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1975, when adjusted for inflation. The American people simply spend more and receive much less in return for their defense dollars. 

Editors note: my take US Industrial Policy: defense industry

 Article Source: Responsible Statecraft

3. Bezos: Media Falls Below Congress in Gallup Trust Poll, Media Must Change

In the annual public surveys about trust and reputation, journalists and the media have regularly fallen near the very bottom, often just above Congress. But in this year’s Gallup poll, we have managed to fall below Congress. Our profession is now the least trusted of all. Something we are doing is clearly not working.  Let me give an analogy. Voting machines must meet two requirements. They must count the vote accurately, and people must believe they count the vote accurately. The second requirement is distinct from and just as important as the first. Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion.   Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions. The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves. (It wasn’t always this way — in the 1990s we achieved 80 percent household penetration in the D.C. metro area.)  

Article Source: Jeff Bezos, WaPo

4. Israeli Strikes Destroy Iran’s Air Defense Gaps, Leaving Them Exposed

The Israeli strikes on Iran hit several of Tehran’s most advanced air defenses, exposing Iran’s vulnerability to future attacks as the two enemies engage in a new era of direct confrontation. During the hourslong attack early Saturday, Israeli warplanes struck Iranian military assets in three provinces, including three Russian-supplied aerial defense systems known as S-300, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. A fourth aerial defense system was also hit. An Israeli official added that all the air-defense systems were rendered unusable. The Israeli attack came after significant U.S. pressure to avoid hitting Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, with the U.S. saying Iran should now stand down from further escalations.

Article Source: WSJ

5. China Tightens Grip on Rare Earths, Restricting Supply to Foreign Firms

The vise-tight grip that China wields over the mining and refining of rare minerals, crucial ingredients of today’s most advanced technologies, is about to become even stronger. In a series of steps made in recent weeks, the Chinese government has made it considerably harder for foreign companies, particularly semiconductor manufacturers, to purchase the many rare earth metals and other minerals mined and refined mainly in China. Already, China produces almost all the world’s supply of these materials. The new restrictions solidify that market dominance.  

Editors note: my take  US Industrial Policy: critical minerals

Article Source: NYT

6. Dodgers on Verge of World Series Victory with Game 4 Against Yankees Tonight

The Los Angeles Dodgers arrived in the Bronx on Monday with momentum on their side against the New York Yankees. They applied more pressure early in Game 3, and now they’re a victory away from winning the World Series. With Freddie Freeman drilling a two-run homer in the first and Walker Buehler dazzling for five innings, the Dodgers stormed to a 4-2 victory and a three games to none lead in the 120th World Series. They can clinch the eighth championship in franchise history — and second in the last five seasons — with a victory in Game 4 on Tuesday.

Article Source: NYT

October 29, 2003: LeBron James debuts in the NBA

Sources

1. https://www.propublica.org/article/election-ohio-wisconsin-michigan-pennsylvania-sherrod-brown-marcy-kaptur

2. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-spending-debt/

3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/

4. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strikes-on-iran-expose-gap-in-prowess-between-two-arch-foes-aded7cf8

5. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/business/china-critical-minerals-semiconductors.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

6. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5881506/2024/10/28/dodgers-yankees-world-series-game-3-takeaways/