October 18 2024

1. Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar, Mastermind of 10/7 Attacks, Killed in Gaza
2. Trump Surges Among Young Men, Harris Dominates Among Young Women
3. Harvard Donations Down 14% Amid Backlash Over Israel Protest Response
4. China's Economic Growth Slows to 18-Month Low
5. Friday Ukraine Update
October 18 1867: U.S. takes possession of Alaska

See the new Ad Astra Podcast! Released on Apple and Spotify around 10a CST.

Editors note: We’re still waiting on Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran. It will come and when it does, we’ll cover it.

1. Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar, Mastermind of 10/7 Attacks, Killed in Gaza

It was a routine patrol for a unit of Israeli soldiers in the southern Gaza Strip. Then a firefight erupted and the Israelis, backed by drones, destroyed part of a building where several militants had taken cover, Israeli officials said. When the dust cleared and they began searching the building, the soldiers found a body that bore a striking resemblance to someone they had not expected to find, a man their country had been hunting for since Oct. 7, 2023: Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. For more than a year, as tens of thousands of Gazans were killed, Mr. Sinwar had eluded the full force of Israel’s military and security establishment, which had dedicated every means at its disposal to finding and killing him. Many believed he was hiding underground in Gaza and had surrounded himself with hostages taken from Israel. In the end, the Israeli officials said, he was killed above ground on Wednesday, alongside two other militants, with no sign of hostages nearby. The Israeli authorities said they had confirmed his death on Thursday, using dental records and fingerprints. His DNA was also tested for confirmation, according to one Israeli official and the White House.

Article Source: NYT

2. Trump Surges Among Young Men, Harris Dominates Among Young Women

one of the cycle’s most important demographic trends: a possible Democratic collapse among young men. Although polls have shown Democrats underperforming among voters age 18 to 29 all election cycle, it increasingly seems possible that most or perhaps all of that weakness is concentrated among young men. Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris among young men, 58 percent to 37 percent, across the last three Times/Siena national polls. Ms. Harris holds an even larger lead among young women, 67-28. Surprisingly, Ms. Harris is faring no better than Mr. Biden did among young men in the Times/Siena data, even as she’s made significant gains among young women. If this enormous gender gap among young voters holds up, it will be one of the most important developments of the election season, one that would at once clarify a surprising trend and perhaps even change how we understand gender and cultural dynamics in America today. The signs of possible Trump strength among young men are obvious online. Many of the major online young male subcultures, from gaming and gambling to cryptocurrency and weight lifting, are increasingly tinged with an anti-establishment ethos and a kind of conservative politics. Whether it’s TikTok or X, a new social media ecosystem has immersed younger and disengaged voters in more pro-Trump content than ever before.

Article Source: NYT

3. Harvard Donations Down 14% Amid Backlash Over Israel Protest Response

Donations to Harvard University fell 14 per cent in the fiscal year ending June 30, as large donors cut ties and prominent alumni in the financial industry criticised its administration over a botched response to protests around the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Overall gifts to the western world’s wealthiest university dropped to $896mn from $1.05bn a year ago, as outrage over campus protests led to the resignation of president Claudine Gay.

Article Source: FT

4. China's Economic Growth Slows to 18-Month Low

A. China’s economy expanded 4.6 per cent year on year in the third quarter, official data showed on Friday, slower than in the previous three months, underlining faltering growth as Beijing steps up stimulus efforts. The economic growth figure is the lowest in 18 months, below the government’s full-year target of 5 per cent and less than the 4.7 per cent recorded in the three months to June as sluggish consumption and a property slump weighed on household sentiment.  

B. The Chinese economy continued to grow at a lackluster pace over the summer, according to data released on Friday, underscoring the urgency of the government’s recent attempts to bolster growth. Construction has slowed because of a housing market meltdown. Millions of young college graduates have been unable to find work. Many local governments have run out of money to build roads or even pay the salaries of teachers and other workers.

Article Source: FT, NYT

5. Friday Ukraine Update

A. Looking at a map, a Ukrainian infantry captain zeroed in on a quarter-mile-wide strip of land that has become one of the most dangerous places on the front line. “This is the Achilles’ heel of Russian tactics,” said Rostyslav Kasyanenko, pointing to a no-man’s-land of scorched earth and flattened buildings that stands between Moscow’s forces and the strategic town of Chasiv Yar.  For six months, Kasyanenko’s company and other units have stopped Russian troops from advancing into the buffer zone to reach the town that offers a route to the rest of the Donetsk region.  This week, though, Moscow’s forces broke through, mounting an assault across two points on the canal that acts like a moat to the east of Chasiv Yar. Their progress, which might be repelled, may mark a significant move by Russia toward capturing the town. Russian forces, at heavy cost to troops and morale, have eaten away at Ukraine’s eastern edge, taking village after village in a campaign to conquer the whole of the region already declared by the Kremlin as its own.  Now Kasyanenko and his men must stop Russian troops from establishing a position within the buffer zone to prevent a full assault on Chasiv Yar.   

B. Ukraine is reportedly weighing options to temporarily suspend its goal of reclaiming all occupied territory, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday, citing an official close to Kyiv’s government. The official acknowledged “serious discussions” are underway about relinquishing full territorial restoration. “We believed that victory had to mean the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,” the official said, adding that this was a “mistaken view of victory” and that an end to the war would require concessions favorable to Russia. War fatigue is playing a role. People “don’t really want to fight anymore,” the official said. So is uncertainty over U.S. support—whether under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—have heightened pressure on Kyiv. The official expressed concern that “Americans will slowly but surely withdraw” as Ukraine approaches a third full year of war on Feb. 22, 2025.  While President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that all occupied regions must be liberated, the Financial Times reported the idea of a “West German” model—abandoning territorial recovery in exchange for NATO membership—is gaining traction. Polling from July found 55% of Ukrainians still oppose territorial concessions, down from 74% in December 2023.  

C. President Biden surged $425 million to Ukraine’s defense against Russia on Wednesday as he prepared to travel to Germany to celebrate the unified front of Western allies. Mr. Biden spoke by telephone to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine about the security package, which includes munitions, armored vehicles and other weapons, the White House announced.

Article Source: WSJ, Cipher Brief, NYT

October 18 1867: U.S. takes possession of Alaska

Sources

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/world/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-gaza-israel.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/upshot/polls-trump-harris-young-men.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

3. https://on.ft.com/3YelLiG

4. A https://on.ft.com/3YDGwWJ
B https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/business/china-gdp-third-quarter.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

5. A https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-has-resisted-russia-in-one-key-town-for-months-its-hold-is-starting-to-break-7b71a4b5?st=JSpe6L&reflink=article_copyURL_share
B Cipher Brief
C https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/us/politics/biden-ukraine-aid.html?campaign_id=7&emc=edit_mbae_20241016&instance_id=137022&nl=morning-briefing:-asia-pacific-edition&regi_id=61468173&segment_id=180601&user_id=02b32d846497687a8f0c061d7ffd16b1