October 10 2024

FLASH …MILTON MADE LANDFALL NEAR TAMPA, FL AS CAT 3 HURRICANE…

NOBLE PRIZE IN LITERATURE Awarded to the South Korean author Han Kang…

1. TikTok News Influencers Change How Americans Consume Political News
2. U.S. Budget Deficit Hits $1.83 Trillion, Outlays Driven by Interest and Programs for Older Americans
3. Unfunded Public Pension Liabilities Reach $1.59 Trillion
4. Partisan Divide Intensifies Across America’s 3,113 Counties
5. Israel Brief
Rafael Nadal to retire from tennis after Davis Cup

October 10 1911: The Panama Canal opens

See the new Ad Astra Podcast! Released on Apple and Spotify around 10a CST.

Editors note: We’re still waiting on Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran. It will come and when it does, we’ll cover it.

FLASH …MILTON MADE LANDFALL NEAR TAMPA, FL AS CAT 3 HURRICANE…

NOBLE PRIZE IN LITERATURE Awarded to the South Korean author Han Kang…

….“for her intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life.”

Article Source: @NoblePrize

1. TikTok News Influencers Change How Americans Consume Political News

“It’s official,” the news report on TikTok declared. “President Biden posted a letter on X saying that he will not be seeking re-election.” Despite the newsy tone, the figure on camera wasn’t a reporter for CNN, Fox News or a local station. Vitus “V” Spehar is a TikToker whose “@underthedesknews” account has more than 3 million followers, topping mainstream news outlets such as MSNBC, the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Spehar is one of a cohort of political news influencers connecting with huge audiences on platforms such as TikTok, playing a significant role in changing how Americans get their news. Among the 200 politically focused TikTok accounts with the most viral posts created in June and July—those with 25,000 or more views—one-fifth were news influencers, according to a Journal analysis of data from social-media research firm CredoIQ. Social-media influencers—also called creators—have taken on a greater role in the political landscape. For the first time, they were credentialed alongside legacy media at this year’s Democratic National Convention. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, hosted creators at a hotel near last month’s Harris-Trump debate where they could watch and post about the event, according to a campaign official.  

Article Source: WSJ

2. U.S. Budget Deficit Hits $1.83 Trillion, Outlays Driven by Interest and Programs for Older Americans

The U.S. budget deficit topped $1.8 trillion in the latest fiscal year, driven by higher spending on interest and programs for older Americans, as the government faces a persistent gap between federal outlays and tax collections. The new data comes as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic pick Kamala Harris are both proposing new tax and spending plans that are estimated to add trillions more to the deficit over the next decade.  Whoever wins the election will face immediate decisions next year about agencies’ spending levels, the federal debt limit and expiring tax cuts. That debate will be pulled one way by a future filled with projections of red ink and pulled the other by Americans who enjoy federal benefits and lower taxes.  In all, the government collected $4.92 trillion in revenue and spent $6.75 trillion, putting the deficit at $1.83 trillion for the year that ended Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which issued its estimates ahead of the official administration tallies expected later this month.  The U.S. spent $950 billion on interest, up 34% from the prior year, mostly because of higher interest rates. Interest costs surpassed military spending.  The U.S. has run larger budget deficits before, both in dollars and as a share of GDP. But the country set those records during wars, economic crises and the coronavirus pandemic, not during a period like today’s low unemployment and solid growth.   

Article Source: WSJ

3. Unfunded Public Pension Liabilities Reach $1.59 Trillion

Public pension systems in the U.S. have seen a significant increase in unfunded liabilities, particularly during the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2010, unfunded liabilities grew by over $1.11 trillion—a 632% increase—reflecting the financial challenges faced during that period. Despite some improvements in funding ratios over the last decade, these liabilities have continued to rise, underscoring ongoing financial pressures. As of the end of the 2023 fiscal year for each public pension system, total unfunded public pension liabilities (UAL) reached $1.59 trillion, with state pension plans carrying the majority of the debt. The median funded ratio of public pension plans stood at 76% at the end of 2023, but stress tests suggest that another economic downturn could significantly increase unfunded liabilities, potentially raising the total to $2.71 trillion by 2025.    

Q: What is an unfunded public pension liability? 

A: An unfunded public pension liability is the gap between the pension benefits a government has promised to its employees and the actual funds set aside to meet those obligations. This occurs when the pension plan's assets are insufficient to cover future payouts.

Q: Why does an unfunded public pension liability matter? 

A: It matters because it can strain government budgets, leading to higher taxes, reduced public services, or borrowing to meet pension obligations. It can also create long-term financial instability for the government if not addressed properly.  

Editor's Note: This is significant because public pensions will likely be funded by printing federal money. The consequence of this approach is an increase in inflation, which will affect everyone.

Article Source: Reason

4. Partisan Divide Intensifies Across America’s 3,113 Counties

An exclusive USA TODAY analysis of the nation's 3,113 counties shows a striking realignment since 2012 that has intensified the partisan leanings in states across the country, leaving only a handful where the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election remains in doubt.

·       Seventy-three percent of counties became more partisan from 2012 to 2020, including 224 blue counties that got bluer and 2,050 red counties that got redder. (The disparity in number isn't as stark as it sounds. The red counties were often in sparsely populated rural areas; the blue counties were often in densely populated cities and suburbs.) 

·       Overall, 40 states became more partisan − that is, states in which partisan leanings intensified in more than half the counties. The exceptions were Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, Utah and Vermont. Alaska wasn't included in the analysis because it reports by election districts, not counties. 

·       Fewer than 1 in 5 counties, 19%, became less partisan over that time, trending less blue (264 counties) or less red (317 counties). In other words, by almost 4 to 1, counties became more partisan, not less so. 

·       Just 8% of counties changed colors, 50 red counties turning blue and 208 blue counties turning red.

·       Even fewer ‒ 5% of counties, 161 of them ‒ were decided in 2020 by 5% of the vote or less, making them relatively competitive.

Article Source: USA TODAY

5. Israel Brief

A. Tensions Rise as Israeli-U.S. Meeting Canceled  

A planned visit to Washington by Israel’s top defense official was abruptly canceled by the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, a sign of tensions between the two allies that casts doubt on whether the Biden administration can prevent Israel’s multifront conflict from exploding into wider war. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had been scheduled to host his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the Pentagon on Wednesday for a meeting expected to focus on Israel’s expanding military operation in Lebanon and its anticipated counterstrike against Iran, whose massive missile barrage this month represented the latest salvo in a battle now spanning the Middle East. Israeli officials have said that the country is preparing a significant military response to that attack. U.S. officials say that Israel has not briefed them on what it is planning.  

B. Lebanon Conflict Displaces Over 1 Million People, Echoes 2010s Refugee Crisis  

Hezbollah militants fought ground battles with Israeli forces Wednesday in southern Lebanon and lobbed more rockets at northern Israeli towns, as the United Nations warned that hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians had fled their homes or the country entirely because of the escalating hostilities. More than 600,000 people have been displaced within Lebanon, and over 300,000 more have left the country since the war broke out last month, the U.N. said, a total nearly on par with the number of people displaced during Lebanon’s 2006 war with Israel. Lebanese officials have put the total latest displacement figure at more than one million.

Editor's Note: This is significant because a large influx of refugees fleeing Lebanon and entering Europe has the potential to further destabilize European politics. In the 2010s, approximately 1 million refugees from the Syrian civil war fled the country and sought asylum in Europe between 2011 and 2019, with a peak in 2015. This wave of refugees strained political systems and contributed to the rise of anti-establishment, anti-immigration parties across the continent. A similar situation could arise on a larger scale if a war in Lebanon leads to mass displacement. Given Europe's current fragility, another surge in immigration could exacerbate existing tensions and instability.

Article Source: WaPo, NYT

Rafael Nadal to retire from tennis after Davis Cup

Rafael Nadal has confirmed that he will retire from professional tennis after the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga, Spain this November. “The reality is that it has been some difficult years, these last two especially. I don’t think I have been able to play without limitations,” he said in a video released Thursday October 10.

Article Source: NYT

October 10 1911: The Panama Canal opens

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