October 03 2024

1.     Israel Weighs Response to Iran’s Missile Barrage That Could Spark Regional War
2. Gas Lines Form in Iran as Israel Threatens Retaliation on Energy Infrastructure
3. Escalation to All-out War Slower Than a Tweet
4. U.S. Ports Paralyzed by Strike, Which Could Last 3 Weeks
5. U.S. Naval Power Declines as China Dominates Seas
October 3 2014: “Serial” debuts, inaugurating the podcast boom

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Editor’s note: This brief has recently been focused on foreign affairs, particularly the escalating situation in the Middle East. Given the potential world historical significance of these events, this emphasis will continue. The brief’s mission remains to cut through the noise and highlight what truly matters in the world, and right now, what’s unfolding in the Middle East is incredibly important.  

1. Israel Weighs Response to Iran’s Missile Barrage That Could Spark Regional War

As Israel weighs how to respond to Tehran’s latest missile barrage, it could take a page from its previous playbook when, after days of deliberation, its military targeted a single Iranian military site. Few expect Israel’s response to be as narrow this time, posing a fresh test as the Biden administration seeks to avoid a new spiral of escalation. “The U.S. already lacks sufficient diplomatic leverage to compel a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer now with the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. Now that Iran has launched more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, which appears determined to carry out a robust response, “The challenge of avoiding a regional war is at its most difficult point since Oct. 7,” Panikoff added.

Article Source: WSJ

2. Gas Lines Form in Iran as Israel Threatens Retaliation on Energy Infrastructure

A. Gas lines form in Iran ahead of possible Israeli strike on energy infrastructure  

Israel’s vow to make Iran pay a price for carrying out a large-scale missile strike on the Jewish state has prompted panic buying of gasoline in major Iranian cities and a day-long suspension of commercial flights in Iranian airspace. Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel after nightfall on Tuesday, in a major escalation of a yearlong conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional proxy forces. The Israeli military intercepted most of the missiles with help from allied U.S. naval forces. Speaking late Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s Islamist rulers had made a “big mistake” by attacking his nation. Other Israeli officials warned those rulers to expect a powerful and painful response. Israel’s threats sparked long lines of cars outside gas stations in major Iranian cities as drivers rushed to fill their vehicles’ tanks.  

B. A wider Mideast war could have major global impacts on oil supply  

Israel's options include targeting Iranian oil production facilities among other strategic sites, U.S. news website Axios reported on Wednesday citing Israeli officials. Iran is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day or 3% of global output. Iranian oil exports have climbed this year to near multi-year highs of 1.7 million bpd despite U.S. sanctions. Chinese refiners buy most of its supply. Beijing says it doesn't recognise unilateral U.S. sanctions. "In theory, if we lost all Iranian production - which is not our base case - OPEC+ has enough spare capacity to make up for the shock," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects. While OPEC has enough spare capacity to compensate for the loss of Iranian supplies, much of that capacity is in the Middle East Gulf region and potentially vulnerable should the conflict escalate further, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. "The effectively available spare capacity might be much lower if renewed attacks on energy infrastructure on countries in the region happen," he said, adding the West might have to tap strategic reserves if there were severe disruptions. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Baghdad regularly attacked tankers around Kharg Island and threatened to destroy the oil terminal. "Iran and its proxies could potentially target energy operations in other parts of the region in order to internationalize the cost if the current crisis devolves into an all-out war," said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets. In 2019, a drone attack by Iranian proxies on Saudi oil processing facilities briefly knocked out 50% of the kingdom’s crude production. "In case of an escalation Iran's proxies might launch attacks on Middle East oil producers, namely Saudi Arabia," said Tamas Varga from PVM. A broad conflict in the Middle East, however, with a major impact on production would inevitably push oil prices up. That would drive up fuel costs. A related rally in gasoline prices could hurt U.S. vice president Kamala Harris in her campaign to win the Nov. 5 presidential election against Republican candidate Donald Trump. "The United States will likely try to push Israel for a more modest response, wanting to avoid a significant escalation in tensions," said Warren Patterson from ING.

Article Source: VOA, Reuters

3. Escalation to All-out War Slower Than a Tweet

Conflicts, whether in the past or present, typically take weeks or months to escalate to full maturity, as history shows with both World War I and World War II. In July 1914, it took a full month after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand for tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to evolve into World War I. Similarly, the path to World War II was marked by a much longer - years - build-up. These historical examples show that conflicts, even when tensions are high, often unfold over extended periods, allowing time for diplomacy to either succeed or fail. In today’s world, it is likely that any modern conflict would follow a similar trajectory, taking weeks or even months to fully escalate. While rapid communication and advanced military technology might hasten the pace of engagements, the complex web of international relations, economic dependencies, and global diplomatic efforts would still likely result in a period of gradual escalation. History suggests that while the outbreak of war can feel sudden, it usually represents the culmination of tensions that have been building for a significant period.

Source: Ad Astra

4. U.S. Ports Paralyzed by Strike, Which Could Last 3 Weeks

On October 1st dockers at 36 ports from Texas to Maine walked off the job after their contract expired. The ports’ giant cranes, which look like enormous metal giraffes, stopped loading and unloading. Ships that did not get to port in time anchored off shore. A few headed to Mexico. “We’re going to show these greedy bastards you can’t survive without us,” said Mr Daggett on the first day of the strike. The union has already disrupted the delivery of billions of dollars’ worth of consumer goods during peak shipping season. About 60% of America’s containerised trade is affected. The strike shut six of the ten busiest ports in North America. Ports, carriers, retailers, warehouses and freight companies prepared for months for a shutdown. Ports on both coasts and the Gulf saw higher volumes than usual because shippers were trying to get in as much stuff as possible before the strike. “It was a huge rush for all truckers to move as much freight on and off as they could,” says Donna Lemm of imc Logistics, a company with 2,200 trucks moving cargo in and out of terminals. In a single day “we have hundreds of containers stacked with four to five days’ worth of work for our drivers to deliver.” Storage facilities are jam-packed. If the strike lasts longer than a week or two, says Adam Kamins, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, that will lead to shortages and price pressures. He warns that even a modest increase in inflation could force the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about lowering interest rates. Mr Daggett told his union brethren that the strike—the first on the east and Gulf coasts since 1977—could last as long as three weeks and that “we are going to walk away with a great contract.”

Article Source: Economist

5. U.S. Naval Power Declines as China Dominates Seas

For most of the twentieth century, the United States was the world’s preeminent maritime power, having surpassed Great Britain’s Royal Navy during World War II. In the aftermath of that war, ships sailing under the American flag dominated commercial shipping transportation. In 1950, 1,087 merchant ships were U.S.-flagged. Another 2,277 were owned as part of the National Defense Reserve Fleet. All told, this totaled over half of the world’s total tonnage capacity. All that is now firmly in the past. Today, China has the world’s largest navy, about 370 ships, and it is still growing rapidly, expected to rise to 430 warships by 2030. The U.S. Navy trails with numbers ranging around 290. China continues to build warships at a rate that the United States simply cannot hope to match. Taiwan war games point to unsatisfactory results for our navy if it must ever take on the Chinese to defend the island.  Meanwhile, the American cargo fleet is a shadow of its formal self. As of 2022, there were only about 178 aging, U.S.-flagged vessels in commercial service, accounting for just 0.57 percent of global tonnage. Additional U.S.-owned vessels flying under foreign flags account for about 2.53 percent of total world tonnage capacity. Since 2023, China has the world’s largest merchant fleet in terms of gross tonnage, more than doubling its capacity over the last decade. In 2022, about 93 percent of all ships by gross tonnage were built in Chinese shipyards.

Article Source: National Interest

October 3 2014: “Serial” debuts, inaugurating the podcast boom

Sources

1. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-response-to-irans-attack-to-set-course-of-widening-war-0c8b5158

2. A https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-s-threat-to-retaliate-against-iran-triggers-panic-buying-at-iranian-gas-stations/7808689.html
B https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-could-cushion-iran-oil-shock-not-broader-disruption-2024-10-02/

3. original

4. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/02/a-ports-strike-shows-the-stranglehold-one-union-has-on-trade

5. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-revive-us-seapower-212989

6. https://youtu.be/M0v6dmme1DU?si=0ZFpQJfLpHoeptZc