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October 01 2024

Lebanon ground invasion; Dockworkers strike; CPI; Newsom vetoes AI bill; AMLO steps down

Greg Loving

• 7 min read
October 01 2024

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FLASH Dikembe Mutombo dead at 58, Jimmy Carter alive at 100

1. Israel Launches Ground Invasion into Southern Lebanon

A. Israel said early Tuesday that its forces had crossed into southern Lebanon in an operation aimed at Hezbollah targets in the border region, as the first Israeli ground invasion of the country since 2006 heralded an uncertain new phase of its decades-long conflict with the Iranian-backed militia. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that one army division — which typically numbers more than 10,000 soldiers — was involved in conducting “limited, localized and targeted raids” along the border, although it was unclear how many of those troops had crossed into Lebanon. It appeared to be a far smaller force than the two divisions Israel sent into the Gaza Strip last October, but the number of troops deployed in northern Israel in recent days has fueled speculation that a broader operation could be coming. U.S. officials said on Monday that they believed Israel’s invasion would be limited and that they had been assured by Israel that there was no plan for a bigger operation by conventional forces or a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon. But several times during its nearly yearlong war in Gaza, Israel has played down the scale of its military actions only to see them grow into monthslong operations involving large numbers of troops — including in its initial ground invasion of Gaza, the push into the southern half of the strip and the incursion in Rafah. Israel said its goal in the Lebanon operation was to eliminate Hezbollah infrastructure that poses an immediate threat to northern Israel so that civilians displaced by rocket fire there can return. The fighting has forced more than 160,000 people from their homes on both sides of the border.  
B. Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades. On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now. Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East.  
C. The Biden administration is moving military forces to deter an Iranian response following Israel’s stepped-up air campaign against Hezbollah and the start of a ground operation in southern Lebanon, U.S. and Israeli officials said. Those moves come after the U.S. warned Iran and the militant groups it supports against targeting American personnel or escalating the conflict. U.S. officials are specifically worried that Iran might mount a new attack on Israel as retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and its escalating military campaign in Lebanon.

Article Source: NYT, FT, WSJ

2. East Coast and Gulf Coast Dockworkers Strike

Dockworkers walked off their jobs at dozens of ports from Maine to Texas at midnight, launching a strike that threatens to rattle the American economy five weeks ahead of the presidential election. Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents 45,000 dockworkers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, began picketing early Tuesday at cargo terminals that handle more than half of American import and export volumes as the contract with port employers expired. Port employers, pressed by Biden administration officials to resolve the impasse, raised their offer on wages to a 50% increase over six years, from an earlier 40% increase, along with other improvements in benefits in the 24 hours before the strike deadline.  The ILA is seeking a 77% wage increase over six years as a condition to sit down to talks with maritime employers, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.  

Article Source: WSJ

3. The Impossible Task of the CPI: How Data Shapes America’s Economic Reality

The CPI is crucial for multiple reasons, and one of them is not because of what it is but what it represents. The gathering of data exemplifies our ambition for a stable, coherent society. The United States is an Enlightenment project based on the supremacy of reason; on the idea that things can be empirically tested; that there are self-evident truths; that liberty, progress and constitutional government walk arm in arm and together form the recipe for the ideal state. Statistics — numbers created by the state to help it understand itself and ultimately to govern itself — are not some side effect of that project but a central part of what government is and does  The CPI is an impossible number. To try to assess every piece of economic activity in a country of nearly 340 million people, find a typical price for it, measure how that price changes, repeat for every urban area in the country, weight it according to how much of a typical household’s expenditure it represents, monitor how much is spent on each item or category as lifestyles change (out with the straw boater, in with the Netflix subscription), put all these millions of data points through an algorithm and come up with a single number summing up what is happening to everyone everywhere — it’s nuts, it can’t be done. Especially when you bear in mind that, as the BLS admits, the precise number “seldom” applies. And yet, it has to be done because otherwise your society is, in economic terms, flying blind. Just as a simple practical point, without the CPI, all those things which need to be adjusted for inflation — half of all federal spending, by some measures — can’t be.

Article Source: WaPo

4. California Governor Newsom Vetoes AI Regulation Bill Amid Pressure from Tech Giants

California governor Gavin Newsom has vetoed a controversial attempt to regulate artificial intelligence, citing concerns that the bill could stifle innovation after intense pressure from tech companies. Newsom, a Democrat, waited until the eleventh hour to announce his decision after the bill passed through the state legislature at the end of August. The bill would have forced those developing the most powerful AI models to adhere to strict rules, including implementing a kill switch, to prevent catastrophic harm. Leading AI companies, including Google, OpenAI and Meta, all opposed the bill and lobbied heavily against it, complaining that premature legislation could stifle the development of AI and threaten California’s leading role in the development of the technology. Amazon-backed Anthropic and Elon Musk, who owns start-up xAI, supported the legislation.

Article Source: FT

To some, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico is a reformer who steered the country toward progress during his six-year presidency. To others, he’s a bulldozer who eroded democratic institutions, and is leaving a host of problems for his successor. Still, as he comes to the end of his term, his critics and supporters largely agree on one thing: Mr. López Obrador transformed his nation — more so than any other leader in the country’s recent history. “This is definitely a watershed presidency that has changed the direction of the country,” said Andrew Paxman, a historian at Mexico’s Center for Research and Teaching in Economics, who is writing a biography of Mr. López Obrador. Blending populist rhetoric with hard-line tactics, Mr. López Obrador expanded his own influence. Over the last decade, he has forged a political movement that mirrored his own personal grievances and tapped into the public’s desire for change. Fusing nationalist and leftist ideals, he vowed to bring change to this country of 130 million. And in many areas, he then delivered on that pledge, and is now leaving office with approval ratings above 70 percent. On Tuesday, Mr. López Obrador will step down and hand the mantle to his longtime protégée, Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City. The landslide win in June by Ms. Sheinbaum — Mexico’s first female president — was seen by many as a clear vote of confidence in Mr. López Obrador and Morena, the party he founded in 2014. June’s elections also gave Morena large legislative majorities unseen in Mexico since the transition to democracy in 2000.

Article Source: NYT

10/1/1890 Yosemite National Park established

Sources

2. A https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah/here-are-the-latest-developments?smid=url-share
B https://www.ft.com/content/fcb30f0e-9faf-451f-bc46-8715779c0e44
C https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/us-air-force-hezbollah-iran-attack-israel-185f4dc9?st=FxiwY1&reflink=article_copyURL_share

3. https://www.wsj.com/articles/dockworkers-launch-strike-at-ports-from-maine-to-texas-dbbeec39?st=EUtSck&reflink=article_copyURL_share

4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/john-lanchester-consumer-price-index-who-is-government/

5. https://www.ft.com/content/b3b92693-a960-4b6c-a503-f2792c77b04d

6. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/americas/mexico-president-lopez-obrador.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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