November 20 2024

1. WWIII watch I: Ukraine Deploys U.S. ATACMS Missiles, Strikes Inside Russia as Putin Updates Nuclear Doctrine
2. WWIII watch II: Chinese Vessel Under Investigation for Baltic Cable Sabotage
3. WWIII watch III: Netanyahu Claims Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program
4. Economy Update: U.S. Economy Shows Uneven Growth Amid Consumer Caution
5. Trump Transition Diary
November 20, 1998: First module of the International Space Station, Zarya, is launched.

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1. WWIII watch I: Ukraine Deploys U.S. ATACMS Missiles, Strikes Inside Russia as Putin Updates Nuclear Doctrine 

A. Ukrainian forces carried out their first strike on a border region in Russia using Western-supplied missiles… Ukraine deployed ATACMS missiles to strike a military facility in the western Bryansk region, Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement on Telegram. It was the first known attack following the decision by President Joe Biden’s administration to approve Kyiv’s limited use of the weapons to hit targets inside Russia, two months before Donald Trump takes over promising to quickly end the war.   

B. Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing a nuclear strike in response to an attack with long-range missiles. The decision to change Russia’s official nuclear doctrine has been in the works for several weeks but its confirmation appears to be in response to Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles inside Russia. Under the law, Russia can respond with nuclear weapons to an attack with conventional arms such as drones or missiles.

Article Source: Bloomberg, Telegraph

2. WWIII watch II: Chinese Vessel Under Investigation for Baltic Cable Sabotage

Investigators of two severed data cables in the Baltic Sea are looking at the movements of a Chinese bulk carrier, the second such probe in recent months amid rising jitters in Europe over potential acts of sabotage. Yi Peng 3, a Chinese-registered vessel that was on its way from the Russian port of Ust-Luga to Port Said in Egypt, passed close to both the Swedish-Lithuanian and Finnish-German cables around the time each was cut on Sunday and Monday, according to data provided by maritime tracking group MarineTraffic.

Article Source: FT

3. WWIII watch III: Netanyahu Claims Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Israel struck a “specific component” related to Iran’s nuclear programme last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, despite pleas from the US to contain its retaliatory air strikes on the Islamic republic. Israeli warplanes also destroyed several batteries of Iran’s S-300, an older model of the Russian air defence system, Netanyahu told the Israeli parliament. Playing into his political persona as the only Israeli leader able to defy the White House, Netanyahu said he had repeatedly acted against the advice of US President Joe Biden on both Gaza and Iran.

Article Source: FT

4. Economy Update: U.S. Economy Shows Uneven Growth Amid Consumer Caution

US economic growth has consistently surprised to the upside in the past few years, and consumers have been the driver. Exhibit one is Walmart, which reported earnings yesterday. As the reigning low-cost retailer, consumer caution helps the Arkansas giant; Walmart is taking share from rivals, and executives pointed out that three-quarters of the gains were with households earning more than $100,000. Better-off consumers are trading down to Walmart. The cautious consumer was a theme in almost every other big retailer report. Amazon noted that “customers [are] looking for deals and are price conscious” and some were trading down. Home Depot faces natural headwinds from low existing home sales, which drive home improvement spending. But it noted that transactions “over $1,000 were down 6.8 per cent compared to the third quarter of last year. The same theme was raised by the big auto parts chains. O’Reilly Automotive saw a weakening sales trend as summer turned to fall. 

Results from Walmart, O’Reilly and Home Depot — and, while we are at it, the presidential election — show that this is an uneven economy. Higher-income households are keeping consumption afloat and seeing their balance sheets improve, while financially strained consumers are hurting. Poorer consumers are also struggling in the housing market. Mortgage rates had started to come down, leading to a jump in issuances. Most of that jump was from consumers with higher credit scores. Yet, rates have ticked back up over the past month. Poor consumers remain all but locked out of the housing market. US consumers, considered as a group, are not in trouble. Indeed they are just fine. But an inflation hangover has made them a bit cautious, and those with debts and low net worth are in real distress.

Article Source: FT

5. Trump Transition Diary

Trump Administration roles  

Linda McMahon offered Education secretary 

Howard Lutnick offered Commerce secretary 

Dr. Oz offered Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services  

A. President-elect Donald J. Trump joined Elon Musk, as his company’s prototype moon and Mars rocket carried out a sixth test flight The late-afternoon launch brought President-elect Donald J. Trump to the company’s South Texas launch site along the Gulf of Mexico for a show of solidarity with Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and the world’s richest man, who helped catapult the former president back to the White House.  

B. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg is asking the judge in @realDonaldTrump's hush-money case to put proceedings on hold until after the president-elect's second term ends in 2029.

Article Source: NYT, @NRO

November 20, 1998: First module of the International Space Station, Zarya, is launched.

Sources

1. A https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-19/ukraine-carries-out-first-atacms-strike-in-russia-rbc-ukraine
B https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/19/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-latest-war-updates/

2. https://www.ft.com/content/383516a5-02db-46cf-8caa-a7b26a0a1bb2?accessToken=zwAGJ1Ad-2q4kc84NRalAttGz9OMqqeyagobsg.MEYCIQDtof0INbJJC5x0P6bHchliClJJ9YykTFOEIs4SqrVjWgIhAN6_P-g6Km60zrWUtP1R0Jz3JAEHRUHRuEtfKVivUn-Z&sharetype=gift&token=ad2f4064-fe25-41ad-b48f-12827ded3bca

3. https://www.ft.com/content/fba93ba6-c192-4213-903b-fc6c85fb72fd

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5. A https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/science/spacex-launch-starship.html
B https://x.com/NRO/status/1859087098592039244