November 18 2024

1. Biden Greenlights Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia As Endgame Approaches
2. Record High U.S. Home Prices Force Buyers to Rely on Inheritances
3. Rural Counties Escalate Secession Push
4. Counties Ignore State Supreme Court in PA Senate Recount
5. Trump Transition Diary
November 18, 2003: “The Terminator” becomes “The Governator” of California

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1. Biden Greenlights Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia As Endgame Approaches

Editors note: we’re approaching the endgame in Ukraine. The Russian advance in the east has accelerated, and NATO, led by the US, credibility is on the line. If Ukrainian lines collapse, the Zelensky government will fall. The risk of escalation is higher and the conflict may play out before Trump is inaugurated Jan. 20, 2025.  

A. President Biden has for the first time authorized Ukrainian forces to use Western-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, allowing Kyiv to better defend itself against Russia, according to U.S. officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision had qualitatively increased the U.S.’s involvement in the war, calling it a “fundamentally new spiral of tension,” in a briefing with journalists Monday. Russia had repeatedly warned against greenlighting Ukrainian strikes deeper inside the country, and President Vladimir Putin had pointed to the Ukrainian use of ATACMS as a red line for Russia. Some U.S. and Western officials say the missiles are unlikely to alter the conflict much, given that Russia can simply move most of its war materiel farther away and in many cases has already done so.    

Editors note: With a range of 180 miles, U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles cannot reach Russia's major cities Moscow (population ~12.6 million) and Saint Petersburg (population ~5.4 million). However, southern cities like Rostov-on-Don (population ~1.1 million), Voronezh (population ~1.05 million), Krasnodar (population ~1 million), and Belgorod (population ~350,000) fall within striking distance.  

B. Russia launched one of the biggest missile-and-drone attacks of the war on cities across Ukraine early Sunday, knocking out power in parts of at least three regions, with some areas also reporting water cuts.  Ukrainian officials said the attack looked like an emphatic response by Russian President Vladimir Putin to moves from Kyiv’s allies to seek a peace deal after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory this month. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putin for the first time in two years on Friday and urged him to negotiate, but Putin stuck to his demands that Kyiv cede territory and remain outside NATO. The full impact of the damage is still being assessed. Ukrainian officials said the main target of the strikes appears to have been Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. DTEK, the largest private energy company in the country, said the attack caused “severe damage.” Ukrenergo, the state energy company, said energy workers have been killed. This is the tenth attack on energy infrastructure this year.

Article Source: WSJ

2. Record High U.S. Home Prices Force Buyers to Rely on Inheritances

The U.S. housing market is one of extremes: Prices have never been higher, down payments are bigger than ever, and buyers are the oldest on record. Another striking statistic: A record high share of first-time homebuyers are using an inheritance to finance their down payment. That’s according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest report, which finds 7% of first-time buyers used an inheritance for their down payment last year. That’s more than double the share of repeat buyers who are doing the same. The trend highlights the growing disparity between who can buy a home in the U.S. and who can’t.

Article Source: Fortune

3. Rural Counties Escalate Secession Push

A burgeoning breakup movement is gaining momentum across Illinois, California and other states where vast swaths of red, rural counties are dominated by a few blue cities. More residents are pushing to break off and form new states. Or as a group called New Illinois State—which has declared itself independent from actual Illinois and last weekend passed the first draft of a new constitution—puts it: “Leave Illinois Without Moving.”  Gioja was among the 73% of voters in predominantly rural Iroquois County who on Election Day backed the idea of forming a new state with every Illinois county except Cook, home to Chicago and more than 40% of the state’s population. The nonbinding resolution also passed in six other counties, bringing the total to 33 of Illinois’s 102 counties.

Article Source: WSJ

4. Counties Ignore State Supreme Court in PA Senate Recount

In an election defined in part by a tsunami of litigation before polls even opened, few states saw as much legal haggling over which ballots should count as Pennsylvania. The polls have long since closed, yet a new round of litigation is flooding the recount battle between Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat, and Dave McCormick, his Republican challenger, who currently leads by around 21,000 votes, a margin rarely overtaken by a simple recount. The landscape, however, is different. In at least four counties — Bucks, Philadelphia, Centre and Montgomery — local election officials are acting in open defiance of a ruling from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court that arrived weeks before the election. The court found that mail ballots that are missing the date on the outer envelope, or have the wrong date, cannot be counted for this election.

Article Source: NYT

5. Trump Transition Diary

Editors note: Trump II is barely underway and already an unbelievable amount of stuff is happening. I am going to have a temporary section in my newsletter that covers the Trump transition. For those of you interested in the very consequential things that are happening in American political life, I will cover it there. And for those of you that are already fatigued by everything Trump, you can skip it.  

A. A STUNNING VICTORY has crowned Donald Trump the most consequential American president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. After defeating Kamala Harris—and not just narrowly, but by a wide margin—America’s 45th president will become its 47th. The fact that Mr Trump will be the first to win non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892 does not start to do justice to his achievement. He has defined a new political era, for America and the world.  

Trump Administration roles 

Karoline Leavitt offered White House Press Secretary 

Chris Wright offered Energy Secretary 

Brendan Carr to Lead F.C.C  

B. Trump’s labor policies face a divide within the Republican Party, with old-guard conservatives favoring low taxes and minimal government intervention, while the “New Right” advocates for empowering workers. Trump's potential appointments to key labor positions could include individuals from either the old guard or the New Right, shaping the administration's approach to unions, workplace safety and employee rights. Despite Trump's pro-worker rhetoric, union officials express skepticism, citing his previous actions such as appointing management lawyers to the NLRB and reducing overtime pay eligibility.

Article Source: WSJ

November 18, 2003: “The Terminator” becomes “The Governator” of California

Sources

1. A https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/biden-approves-ukraines-use-of-long-range-missiles-inside-russia-003154be?mod=hp_lead_pos4
B https://www.wsj.com/world/as-western-leaders-look-to-talks-with-putin-russia-launches-massive-barrage-on-ukraine-aaa86174

2. https://fortune.com/2024/11/14/homes-are-so-expensive-a-record-number-of-first-time-buyers-needed-an-inheritance/

3. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/rural-counties-new-illinois-california-1e1badb5?mod=hp_lead_pos9

4. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/pennsylvania-election-ballots-recount.html

5. A Economist
B https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-labor-policy-working-class-voters-923e8861?mod=hp_lead_pos8