November 13 2024

1. Fewer states than ever will have split-party Senate delegations
2. Coal Demand Climbs, Threatening Global Climate Goals
3. Jack Teixeira Sentenced to 15 Years for National Security Leaks
4. AI Boosts Top Scientists' Output, Strains Creativity: MIT Study
5. Trump Transition Diary
November 13, 1914: The brassiere is patented

no podcast today

Editors note: Trump II is barely underway and already an unbelievable amount of stuff is happening. I am going to have a temporary additional section in my newsletter that covers the Trump transition. For those of you interested in the very consequential things that are happening in American political life, I will cover it there. And for those of you that are already fatigued by everything Trump, you can skip it.

1. Fewer states than ever will have split-party Senate delegations

Around two dozen states elected both a Republican and a Democratic senator in the 1980s. Only three remain. Voters in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania — states that Donald Trump won on Nov. 5 — also voted for Republicans to take over Senate seats currently held by Democrats, helping Republicans secure control of the upper chamber. After these flips, only Maine, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will send a split-party delegation of one Democrat and one Republican to the Senate. That is the lowest number since Americans began directly electing senators more than a century ago.  Voters in six of the seven swing states did split their tickets, backing Trump and a Democrat for Senate. Pennsylvania was the only swing state that elected a Republican for Senate.

Article Source: WaPo

2. Coal Demand Climbs, Threatening Global Climate Goals

A. Coal provides around one-third of the world’s electricity, much of that in developing countries, which argue it is necessary for economic growth.  Last year worldwide coal consumption grew by 4.5% to its highest level ever, notes Bloombergnef, a research firm. The main source of demand is electricity. The world’s total generating capacity from coal-fired power stations has grown by 11% since 2015, according to e3g, an advocacy group. There are now more than 6,500 coal-fired power plants worldwide with a combined generation capacity of around 2,245gw. They are still being built. Because burning coal releases much more carbon per unit of energy than burning oil or natural gas, it is especially bad for the climate, accounting for 41% of all greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil fuels. If the current fleet of coal plants is run normally until 2050, they will emit some 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, according to the International Energy Agency (iea). Those emissions alone would be enough to provide a better-than-even chance of global temperatures rising from their current level of about 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels to more than 1.5°C above. Yet to phase out all coal plants by 2040 the world would need to shut down several plants a week and replace their capacity.  

B. One year after world leaders made a splashy promise to shift away from fossil fuels, countries are burning more oil, natural gas and coal than ever before, researchers said this week. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are on track to reach a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024, a 0.8 percent increase over 2023 levels, according to new data from the Global Carbon Project. It’s a trend that puts countries farther from their goal of stopping global warming.  

Article Source: Economist, NYT

3. Jack Teixeira Sentenced to 15 Years for National Security Leaks

Jack Teixeira, the Massachusetts Air National Guard member responsible for a sprawling leak of classified information, was sentenced Tuesday to 15 years in prison in a case that shook the U.S. national security community and exposed the ease with which government secrets can spread online. Teixeira…[plead] guilty in March to six federal charges, including the willful retention and transmission of national defense information that the U.S. government classified as top secret. Teixeira, who turns 23 next month, had asked for a prison sentence of 11 years; prosecutors sought a sentence of nearly 17. Teixeira was an information technology specialist at Joint Base Cape Cod in Massachusetts when he smuggled out images of hundreds of classified documents and posted them on Discord, a chat platform popular with video gamers. Those materials revealed government assessments of the war in Ukraine, plotting by terrorist groups, and espionage efforts by China against the United States and its allies, endangering American personnel overseas, prosecutors emphasized, while rattling Washington’s relationships with several foreign capitals.

Article Source: WaPo

4. AI Boosts Top Scientists' Output, Strains Creativity: MIT Study

This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on innovation, exploiting the randomized introduction of a new materials discovery technology to 1,018 scientists in the R&D lab of a large U.S. firm. AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, resulting in a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in downstream product in- novation. These compounds possess more novel chemical structures and lead to more radical inventions. However, the technology has strikingly disparate effects across the productivity distribution: while the bottom third of scientists see little benefit, the output of top researchers nearly doubles. Investigating the mechanisms behind these results, I show that AI automates 57% of “idea-generation” tasks, reallocating researchers to the new task of evaluating model-produced candidate materials. Top scientists leverage their domain knowledge to prioritize promising AI suggestions, while others waste significant resources testing false positives. Together, these findings demonstrate the potential of AI-augmented research and highlight the complemen- tarity between algorithms and expertise in the innovative process. Survey evidence reveals that these gains come at a cost, however, as 82% of scientists report reduced satisfaction with their work due to decreased creativity and skill underutilization.

Article Source: Aidan Toner-Rodgers, MIT

5. Trump Transition Diary

A. A STUNNING VICTORY has crowned Donald Trump the most consequential American president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. After defeating Kamala Harris—and not just narrowly, but by a wide margin—America’s 45th president will become its 47th. The fact that Mr Trump will be the first to win non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892 does not start to do justice to his achievement. He has defined a new political era, for America and the world.  

Trump Administration roles 

Pete Hegseth offered Secretary of Defense  

Editors note: this one is out there. Will require strong Deputy Defense Secretary to be successful. We’ll have to see their plans for an uncertain Senate confirmation. 

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE 

@VivekGRamaswamy: And yes, this means I’m withdrawing myself from consideration for the pending Senate appointment in Ohio. Whoever Governor DeWine appoints to JD’s seat has some big shoes to fill. I will help them however I can. 

Mike Huckabee offered Ambassador to Israel  

Robert Lighthizer reported to be offered “Trade Tsar” 

John Ratcliffe offered CIA Director 

Steven C. Witkoff offered Special Envoy to the Middle East 

William Joseph McGinley offered White House Counsel  

B. NYT:

But four and a half months after Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump clashed in Atlanta, the two men will sit down in the Oval Office on Wednesday for the traditional handoff between the departing and incoming presidents. Mr. Biden extended the invitation to Mr. Trump, who accepted. What the two political rivals will say to each other behind closed doors is unclear, and so is what they might say publicly. They are scheduled to have a brief photo op in front of reporters after the meeting ends.    

C. WaPo:  

With Republicans on the cusp of unified control of Washington, Congress appears primed to extend the deadline for a government shutdown well past President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Lawmakers are discussing a temporary measure that would fund the government into March, according to two people briefed on the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.   

D. NYT:  

Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared nearly 30 percent in the week since Election Day, according to data from Morning Consult, an online survey firm. Republicans, according to the survey, now feel better about the economy than at any time since Mr. Trump lost his bid for re-election four years ago. Democrats, unsurprisingly, have had a very different reaction. Sentiment in that group has dropped 13 percent since Election Day, its lowest level since early 2023. For political independents, relatively little has changed in their attitudes toward the economy in recent days.  

E. FT: 

Elon Musk’s support for Donald Trump is set to boost X’s flagging business, with some marketers poised for a return to the social media platform in order to seek favour with the incoming administration. Media executives told the Financial Times that some brands were preparing to advertise on X once again, as its billionaire owner was likely to gain an influential role within a second Trump White House. some marketers are likely to reallocate spending back to X as “political leverage”, such as if they were seeking government contracts. He added companies would seek to get in the “good graces of Elon”, who has been given a wide remit by Trump as co-head of a new Department of Government Efficiency.  Musk has predicted a comeback for X’s business after fervently backing Trump’s campaign through the platform and in more than $100mn in political donations. “Some of the boycott is starting to lift,” he told podcaster Joe Rogan ahead of the US elections, adding that “if Trump wins we’ll see . . . most of the boycott lift.”   

F. WSJ:

Republican senators’ secret ballot vote Wednesday for a new leader will test how much lawmakers want to shake things up as they enter an era defined by the populist energy that propelled President-elect Donald Trump back to the White House. The front runners for the top Republican position—open for the first time in nearly two decades—are Sens. John Thune (R., S.D.) and John Cornyn of (R., Texas), who have both served as top lieutenants to outgoing leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and are seen as providing continuity for the party.  The third candidate is Sen. Rick Scott (R., Fla.), who is close to Trump and is mounting a long-shot bid with the backing of a faction of GOP senators who have clashed with McConnell. The new majority leader will guide the Senate as Republicans work to pass sweeping tax cuts, consider Trump-nominated judges and cabinet officials and navigate high-stakes battles over government spending, foreign aid and the debt ceiling. The leader will also be charged with determining how the majority functions, and how much power to give to frustrated rank-and-file members who for years have felt sidelined.  

G. WSJ:  

The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership. If Donald Trump approves the order, it could fast-track the removal of generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to a draft of the order reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. But it could also create a chilling effect on top military officers, given the president-elect’s past vow to fire “woke generals,” referring to officers seen as promoting diversity in the ranks at the expense of military readiness.

Article Source: Economist, NYT, WaPo, NYT, FT, WSJ

November 13, 1914: The brassiere is patented

Sources

1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/12/senate-control-2026-map/

2. A https://www.economist.com/international/2024/11/11/king-coal-is-dirty-dangerous-and-far-from-dead
B https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/climate/fossil-fuel-emissions-2024-record.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/12/jack-teixeira-sentence-discord-leak/

4. https://conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f210475.pdf

5. A https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/11/06/welcome-to-trumps-world
B https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/us/politics/trump-biden-meeting.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
C https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/11/trump-government-shutdown-deadline/
D https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/business/economy/consumer-sentiment-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
E https://on.ft.com/3ABRLFO
F https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/secret-ballot-for-leader-tests-gop-senators-in-new-trump-era-bbf2e1ce?st=QbQjPn&reflink=article_copyURL_share
G https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-draft-executive-order-would-create-board-to-purge-generals-7ebaa606?st=Mh6PQf&reflink=article_copyURL_share