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November 06 2024

Trump wins election; GOP trifecta; Country shifts right; Demographic realignment; 2024 polling errors; College football

Greg Loving

• 4 min read
November 06 2024


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Donald Trump decisively won last night’s election, securing 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226. Early results indicate he swept all key swing states. According to the New York Times, Trump currently leads in the popular vote with around 71 million votes to Harris’s 66 million. Betting markets project he will win the popular vote by 2-3% when all the counting is done, marking the first time a Republican has done so since George W. Bush in 2004.

Article Source: Ad Astra

2. Republicans Claim Trifecta: Control Presidency, Senate, and House

Donald Trump’s coattails helped deliver gains for Republicans in the House and Senate. The GOP is projected to control the Senate with a 54-46 majority, having won every battleground race except Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as races in West Virginia and Montana. Republicans are also likely to secure the House of Representatives, though final results are still pending. Prediction markets currently estimate a 96% chance of GOP control in the House.  

To gain control of the House, Democrats need to flip four seats from Republicans. And they need to do that while holding all of their own, a tall task especially in congressional districts where Trump has won. 

This Republican trifecta grants Donald Trump significant leeway to advance his policy agenda through at least 2026. Control of the Senate also gives Donald Trump the ability to confirm Cabinet appointees and judges with ease. An underreported story this election cycle is that extensive gerrymandering has made the House of Representatives highly polarized. Only about 30 House races were competitive last night, guaranteeing in a narrow margin of control for whichever party emerged victorious.

Article Source: Ad Astra, AP

3. NYT’s “Arrows Map” Shows Rightward Swing to Trump Nationwide

Article Source: NYT

4. Trump Broadens GOP Base Across Many Demographics

Associated Press polling data reveals significant shifts within Donald Trump’s reshaped Republican Party. Versus 2020, Trump increased his support among non-white, non-college-educated men by 10 points, particularly among younger voters. Specifically, among non-college-educated Latinos and young Black voters, Trump expanded his margin among Latinos aged 18-44 by 12% and increased his margin among young Black voters aged 18-44 by 11%. In addition to broadening his appeal among non-white young men, Donald Trump expanded his margin among white young men and women aged 18-44 by 4% compared to 2020. Meanwhile, Democrats expanded their lead among college-educated men by 2 points, but experienced a 3-point decline among college-educated women.  

The conflict in Israel had significant impact on the Arab-American population in Dearborn, Michigan. In this community, Donald Trump captured 45% of the vote, while Jill Stein, viewed as a protest vote, won 33%. Kamala Harris secured only 15%—a strikingly low figure for a Democratic candidate.  

But perhaps the biggest story from Trump’s victory was his significant inroads with Latino voters nationwide across all ages and education levels. In Starr County, Texas—the most Latino county in America at 96%, located on the U.S.-Mexico border—Trump won by 16 points. In 2016 he lost the county by 60 points - a 76 point swing over the past eight years. The Republican Party’s appeal among Latino voters was not limited to Donald Trump. In his Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz won the Latino vote by 6%. This marks a 35-point shift from 2018, when he lost this demographic by 29 points.

Article Source: Ad Astra

5. 2024 Polling Errors Reflect Consistent Statewide Bias, Marking Third Consecutive Election Cycle

If NYT estimates are correct, national polls would be off by 2.4 (compared to 538 averages) & swing state polls would be off 1.9 PA, 4.1 NV, 1.7 GA, 2.5 NC, 2.9 MI, 2.6 WI, & 2.6 AZ. That's not a large average error, though it is systematic in the same direction as 2016 & 2020.  
2024 polling error in historical context (for key states):  1. Much better in most of Midwest + NC vs. 16/20. 2. IA big exception. Along w/FL + TX, worst polling misses over last 2 decades. 3. Same direction of error for ~every state for 3rd straight year--this is not normal.  

Article Source: X

November 6, 1869: Rutgers beats Princeton in first college football game

Sources

1. https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

2. https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?tid=1730903041705
https://apnews.com/live/senate-house-election-updates-11-5-2024#00000193-01c0-d414-a79f-1fdd05f50000

3. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

4. https://x.com/mtracey/status/1854143512486248549
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1854012614541533579?s=61&t=gDkZtWNRSWi2aI32jS5cUg
https://substack.news-items.com/p/trump-20
https://x.com/thorongil16/status/1854014321166065847?s=61&t=gDkZtWNRSWi2aI32jS5cUg

5. https://x.com/MattGrossmann/status/1854061278341259428
https://x.com/A_agadjanian/status/1854161824117092491

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