November 04 2024

1. Final Election Update
2. Non-Trump/Harris Election Updates:  $15 Billion , 11,000 Groups Seek to Influence Outcome, Half of America Already Voted, 7 in 10 US Races Are Uncontested
3. Migrant Smuggling, Generating Up To $12 billion, Is A Major Revenue Stream For Cartels
4. US Military Relies on Aging Commercial Ship Fleet
5. Chinese Hackers Target Trump, Harris Campaigns, and Millions of US Phones
6. World Series Sees 93% Increase in Younger Viewers
November 4, 1922: King Tut’s tomb discovered

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1. Final Election Update

This will be Ad Astra Citizen Journal's final election update. We will not provide a prediction—only the data. The RealClearPolitics average, which averages all polls, has Trump up by 0.1%. This is extremely close and statistically tied. However, it is better than his position on the eve of the 2020 (Biden +7.2) and 2016 elections (Clinton +3.2). 

However, the election is not decided by the national popular vote but by the Electoral College, specifically in seven key battleground states. These states are typically 4-5% more conservative than the national popular vote due to factors like their demographic makeup. In those states, polling is much closer than a 4-5% margin, suggesting that either the national or state battleground polls are inaccurate. Historically, national popular vote polls have had a better track record than state polls, which tend to show more variability. We do, however, have early voting data from the battleground states. Unlike polls, this data reflects actual votes cast. In this data, Republicans are performing significantly better than they did in 2020.  

One caveat is that we don't know how these individuals voted. While we can see that a registered Democrat cast a vote, we don’t know if it was for Harris or Trump. The major assumption here is that most party members voted for their party’s candidate. One last important note: in 2020, voter turnout was 60%, translating to 150 million voters. In the 2022 midterms, turnout dropped to 40%, leaving 20% of the electorate, or 30 million additional voters, who didn’t participate. These additional voters, who aren’t heavily partisan, will ultimately decide the outcome of the 2024 election. While Republicans currently hold an early voting advantage, the election will come down to turnout on Election Day. If Democrats turn out more voters, they will win. If Republicans do, they will win. It’s that simple.

Article Source: Ad Astra

2. Non-Trump/Harris Election Updates:  $15 Billion , 11,000 Groups Seek to Influence Outcome, Half of America Already Voted. 7 in 10 US Races Are Uncontested

A. 11,000 Groups and $15 Billion Seek to Influence the US Election 

The US political system runs on money – and lots of it. With no legal limits on how much money can go into electing candidates to the White House and Congress, voters are deluged with ads, text messages and mailers as Republicans and Democrats battle to influence a deeply divided electorate. That flood of TV commercials, frantic fundraising appeals and litany of door knockers is the result of $14.7 billion worth of spending from candidates, parties and political action committees, about 92% of the total that OpenSecrets projects will be shelled out through the election cycle. More than 11,000 political groups — ranging from political action committees backed by billionaire Elon Musk to niche interest groups — spent money in the 2024 election cycle, according to filings with the Federal Election Committee. This is every single entity that spent more than $100,000, which accounts for 99% of all political spending, with less than a week left before Election Day.  

B. Half of America Has Already Voted  

To a striking extent, Americans are not waiting for Election Day to vote. More than 74 million people had already cast their ballots as of Saturday, which is nearly 47 percent the total number cast in the 2020 presidential election. That includes 4 million voters in Georgia — or 80 percent of the total that voted there in 2020. In the battlegrounds of Arizona and North Carolina, roughly half of eligible voters have already shown up. And in three states — Connecticut, Delaware and South Carolina — early voting has surpassed 2020 levels. This surge of early voting suggests that a long-term trend that was accelerated by the pandemic during the 2020 election has led to a lasting change in voting habits, with Election Day increasingly subsumed by Election Season. 

C. 7 in 10 Races Uncontested  

In an election season that is setting records in some states for turnout, campaign spending and existential angst, a new survey of races nationwide offers another chart-topping statistic: Seven in 10 elective offices in this year’s general election are being sought by only one candidate. BallotReady,  a nonpartisan organization promoting civic engagement, which conducted the research, said the share of uncontested races at all levels of government, from local fire districts to Capitol Hill, was greater than in any of its past surveys in 2020, 2022 and 2023. “Democracy is not working the way it should,” Alex Niemczewski, chief executive of the organization, said on Wednesday. “Voters don’t have a choice.”

Article Source: Bloomberg, WaPo, NYT

3. Migrant smuggling, generating up to $12 billion, is a major revenue stream for cartels

human smuggling business that has exploded in recent years, enabling a record number of migrants to reach the U.S. southern border. At least 80 percent of unlawful border-crossers hire smugglers, according to a 2023 report by the Department of Homeland Security. Even as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris spar over migration, each presidential candidate pledging tougher controls on the border, smugglers are creating an ever-more-efficient pipeline to get people there. They guide people through treacherous jungles on the trek from Colombia to Panama. They whisk migrants over remote Guatemalan border crossings and up traffic-clogged Mexican highways. With revenue estimated at $4 billion to $12 billion per year, the smuggling of migrants has joined drugs and extortion as a top income stream for groups like Mexico’s Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels, increasing their economic clout throughout the hemisphere.

Article Source: WaPo

4. US Military Relies on Aging Commercial Ship Fleet

A. Every two weeks since late last year, officers here convene a classified intelligence briefing about fighting in the Red Sea. The attendees aren’t politicians, policymakers or spies. They are private shipping executives. The meetings are part of a push by the Pentagon’s Transportation Command, or Transcom, to integrate shipping lines as crisis supply lines. The policy stems from a dire need in an unloved but vital corner of America’s military behemoth. A House select committee in February called Transcom’s sea-cargo capacity “woefully inadequate.” The U.S. is investing heavily in new weapons systems, but missiles, warships and jet fighters are only a fraction of what the military worries about. Troops sent to battle also need food and water. Their equipment devours fuel and spare parts. Guns without ammunition are dead weight. Wounded fighters require evacuation. Moving all of that—and keeping supplies flowing for months or years—demands vast and complex support infrastructure, broadly termed logistics. If it doesn’t function, even a battle-proven force will grind to a halt. “Logistics underwrites everything,” said Jacqueline Van Ovost, who recently retired as Transcom’s commander. “You can’t outrun your logistics.” China’s rise has exposed America’s shipping weakness. Beijing isn’t just Washington’s biggest military rival. It is also by far the world’s biggest logistics operation. Within China’s centrally directed economy, the government controls commercial shippers, foreign port facilities and a globe-spanning cargo-data network that in a conflict could be repurposed for military aims or to undermine the U.S., including on home soil. Transcom’s fleet of planes and cargo ships, meanwhile, is aging and insufficient. In conflict with China, the Pentagon would send roughly 90% of its provisions by sea. Among 44 government-owned ships for moving vehicles that Transcom can tap, 28 will retire within eight years. Replacements have faced repeated delays. 

B. "Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”. - General Omar Bradley, U.S. Army

Article Source: WSJ

5. Chinese Hackers Target Trump, Harris Campaigns, and Millions of US Phones

Last week, the Chinese hacking and spying operation known as “Salt Typhoon” was revealed to have targeted former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as well as staffers for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and for Congress. The Post has reported that the hackers were able to collect audio and text messages from their targets in a wide-ranging espionage operation, which likely began several months ago. But what is less well understood, according to six current and former senior U.S. officials I spoke with from both parties, all of whom were briefed by the U.S. intelligence community on the operation, is that the threat is much broader. The Chinese hackers, who the United States believes are linked to Beijing’s Ministry of State Security, have burrowed inside the private wiretapping and surveillance system that American telecom companies built for the exclusive use of U.S. federal law enforcement agencies — and the U.S. government believes they likely continue to have access to the system. Millions of mobile-phone users on the networks of at least three major U.S. carriers could thus be ongoingly vulnerable to Chinese government surveillance.

Article Source: WaPo

6. World Series Sees 93% Increase in Younger Viewers

younger audiences are leading the significant viewership gains for this year’s World Series. The first two games of the World Series registered a +93% increase in viewership within the 18-34 year-old audience in the U.S. Compared to last year’s Fall Classic, the 18-34 year-old group is drawing the largest increase of any of the demos.  In addition, MLB’s social media platforms have registered the most views and engagements in World Series history. Through two games of the Fall Classic, MLB’s social channels registered more than 345 million views (+229% vs. 2023) and 25 million engagements (+225% vs. 2023).

Article Source: MLB

November 4, 1922: King Tut’s tomb discovered

Sources

2. A https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-pac-spending-donations-fec/?srnd=homepage-americas
B https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/02/early-voting-election-2024/
C https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/election-uncontested-races.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/01/migrant-smuggling-us-border-cartels/

4. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/why-the-u-s-military-has-to-hitch-a-ride-on-commercial-ships-58d0ece9?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

5. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/02/china-spying-telecom-trump-harris-fbi-cell-phone/

6. https://www.mlb.com/press-release/release-nearly-30-million-average-viewers-in-u-s-japan-for-first-2-world-series-games