August 19 2024

FLASH Democratic National Convention begins tonight 
1 U.S. Inflation Surge Leaves Prices Permanently Elevated
2 US Office Market Shows Signs of Bottoming
3 Harris’s Economic Plan Widely Criticized
4 Pentagon Warns of New Global Arms Race as Nuclear Rivalries Intensify
5 Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis Fuels Democratic Split, Protests Loom Over DNC
8/19/1953 CIA‑assisted coup overthrows government of Iran

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FLASH Democratic National Convention begins tonight 

1 U.S. Inflation Surge Leaves Prices Permanently Elevated

Despite inflation cooling to the lowest level in more than three years in July, there's no way around the fact that consumer prices in the United States have risen sharply over the past three years, as several factors came together to form a perfect storm of inflationary pressures. Since February 2020, the last month before the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the global economy, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) has increased 20.9 percent. Assuming the Fed’s targeted 2-percent inflation rate, prices would only have increased by 9.1 percent during that period, illustrating how severe the recent inflation surge has been. More importantly though, prices are going to remain elevated even if inflation returns to its target level of 2 percent, meaning that the effects of the inflation crisis will linger.

Article Source: Statista

2 US Office Market Shows Signs of Bottoming

A years-long price decline for US offices could soon be ending as sales volume has stopped falling and large properties are being resold well below prior deal values, according to Moody’s Analytics. “We are seeing signs that the market is beginning to function in a healthier way,” the firm said in a report dated Thursday. “A significant increase in price discovery paired with reaching a bottom in transaction volume means we could be nearing a bottom in office pricing.”

Ed note: hitting bottom is good, but it doesn’t mean the pain is over

Article Source: Bloomberg

3 Harris’s Economic Plan Widely Criticized

Democrats rushed to defend Kamala Harris’s newly unveiled economic plans on Sunday, amid criticism that they amounted to gimmicks that would fail to tackle inflation. The Democratic presidential candidate outlined her economic vision at an event in North Carolina on Friday, pledging to ban price gouging and offer new tax relief for families and homebuyers. But some of the measures met a cool response from economists and habitual allies of the Democrats, complicating the vice-president’s bid to win voters’ trust on the economy and cost of living issues.

In an editorial, the Washington Post — which has for decades endorsed Democrats for the presidency — said that Harris had “instead of delivering a substantial plan, squandered the moment on populist gimmicks”. 

Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff told CNN he did not think corporate price gouging had “all that much to do” with inflation. “I hope she walks this one back, she had some good ideas, some mixed ideas. This was a horrible idea,” he said. Trump hit out at Harris’s economic policies on Saturday at a rally in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, saying she was advocating for “communist price control” that would lead to “food shortages, rationing, hunger, dramatically more inflation”.

Article Source: FT

4 Pentagon Warns of New Global Arms Race as Nuclear Rivalries Intensify

The nuclear de-escalation that followed the cold war is over, the Pentagon warned this month. In its place is a new rivalry among nuclear and almost-nuclear powers, some of them paranoid. It is more complex and less predictable than the old, bipolar contest between America and the Soviet Union. That makes it more dangerous.

Evidence of new dangers is everywhere. China is building hundreds of missile silos in its northern deserts. Vladimir Putin blusters about using nuclear weapons and threatens to aim more Russian missiles at Europe. Even as it is poised to launch another conventional attack on Israel, Iran is closer to a bomb than it was five years ago, having reportedly recently made advances in weaponisation, the process of turning enriched uranium into warheads. North Korea says it is “bolstering” its nuclear programme. This week Donald Trump claimed he would build an “Iron Dome” missile shield to protect America. “It just takes one maniac,” he explained. All this is a big shift. Between 1986 and 2023 the number of warheads worldwide fell from 70,000 to 12,000 as the end of the cold war ushered in defence cuts and arms control.

Article Source: Economist

5 Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis Fuels Democratic Split, Protests Loom Over DNC

more than 70% of Gaza’s housing, already depleted in previous conflicts, has been reported as damaged, along with schools, hospitals and businesses. Most of its 2.2 million people are displaced, crammed into a tiny slice of land along the Mediterranean coast, largely cut off from fresh water and food, as well as medicine and basic sanitation, aid agencies say. Amid all the havoc of Israel’s military operation, more than 40,000 people in Gaza have died, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Israeli air strikes have left more than 42 million tonnes of debris across the Strip, according to the UN. That’s enough rubble to fill a line of dump trucks stretching from New York to Singapore. Removing it all may take years and cost as much as $700 million. The task will be complicated by unexploded bombs, dangerous contaminants and human remains under the rubble.
Bloomberg

Even as feel-good displays of joy and confidence are set to dominate the Democratic National Convention this week in Chicago, one painful issue is bitterly dividing the Democratic establishment from its left flank: Israel’s war in Gaza. The specter of convention-upending protests that hovered over a gathering hosted for President Biden has receded somewhat with the rise of a new candidate in Kamala Harris, who is seen as more sympathetic to Palestinian rights activists. But tens of thousands of protesters are still expected to convene just outside the event’s security perimeter, and the potential for high-profile disruptions remains real.

the convention will be shadowed by large protests against the Biden-Harris administration’s approach to a war that Gaza health authorities say has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 that left 1,200 people dead in Israel.
NYT

Article Source: Bloomberg, NYT

8/19/1953 CIA‑assisted coup overthrows government of Iran

The Iranian military, with the support and financial assistance of the United States government, overthrows the government of Premier Mohammad Mosaddeq and reinstates the Shah of Iran. Iran remained a solid Cold War ally of the United States until a revolution ended the Shah’s rule in 1979.

Ed note: The 1953 coup has fueled long-standing resentment toward the U.S. among many Iranians. The coup was seen as an infringement on Iran's sovereignty. Over time, the Shah's increasingly autocratic rule, supported by the U.S., deepened the discontent. This resentment culminated in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic. The coup remains a symbol of U.S. interference in Iran, contributing to ongoing anti-American sentiment in the country. This historical grievance is often invoked by Iranian leaders and in public discourse to justify opposition to U.S. policies, particularly in the context of sanctions, nuclear negotiations, and regional influence.

Sources

2. https://www.statista.com/chart/31264/change-in-us-consumer-prices-by-expenditure-category/

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/us-office-market-shows-bottoming-signs-says-moody-s-analytics

4. https://on.ft.com/46PHxNE

5. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/08/15/reluctantly-america-will-have-to-build-more-nuclear-weapons

6. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-gaza-who-will-pay-to-rebuild/?srnd=homepage-americas; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/18/us/politics/dnc-democrats-israel-gaza.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare