April 9 2025
US China trade war escalates; Markets update; Trump boosts coal industry; Trump cancels student visas; U.S.-Iran talks to begin
China Vows to Fight as Trump Escalates Tariffs to 104% in Trade War
Global Market Selloff Update
Trump Signs Orders to Revive Coal, Rolls Back Climate Rules
Trump Admin Revokes 500 Foreign Student Visas in University Crackdown
U.S.-Iran Talks to Start This Weekend
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China Vows to Fight as Trump Escalates Tariffs to 104% in Trade War
Beijing threatened to “fight to the end” as President Trump early Wednesday morning brought the total of the tariffs imposed on China in his second term to 104%, with both countries digging in for a protracted fight that lays bare the global economic fault line at the heart of the trade war. While Trump has dramatically expanded his broadsides over trade to encompass allies and adversaries alike, China remains his foremost target. That reflects not just the intensifying geopolitical rivalry but also China’s 20 years of growing trade surpluses with the U.S. that Trump has said have been ruinous for American jobs and industries. Even as other countries make a beeline to strike deals with the White House, there will likely be no end to trade upheavals as long as that gap between the world’s two largest economies persists. A drawn-out brawl heightens the risk of major disruption to international commerce and a downturn in global growth. “We are going down the path of a more fractured world economy,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics in London. Beijing vowed on Tuesday to retaliate further if Trump carries out his threat to raise the tariff on Chinese goods by an additional 50%. Trump’s additional 50% threat was itself a response to China’s decision last week to hit back at the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, including a blanket tariff of 34% on U.S. goods and curbs on access to rare-earth minerals.
Editors note: there’s a lot going on these days, we’re clearly in a period of immense global change not seen since WW2. But a trade war between the world two biggest economies, including the US putting 104% tariffs on China, is the biggest story. I expect a Xi Jinping-Trump summit relatively soon.
Source: WSJ
Global Market Selloff Update
Global markets convulsed as sweeping new U.S. tariffs went into effect, setting up Wall Street for another tense session. Taking center stage was the selloff in U.S. Treasurys, a keystone asset in global financial markets. The yield on the 10-year note, the reference point for trillions of dollars in loans and securities, was recently at 4.39%, after rising as high as 4.47% earlier Wednesday. For bond investors, the sharp rise in yields echoes a selloff at the depth of the Covid meltdown, when traders sold whatever they could to raise cash. Further increases in yields could add to pressure on economies already hit by rising prices and slowing trade due to tariffs. Investors say there is broad nervousness about holding longer-term Treasurys ahead of government auctions of 10-year notes Wednesday and 30-year bonds Thursday. That anxiety contributed to a global stock selloff, with Japanese stocks falling 3.9% and European stocks down more than 3%. U.S. stock futures were volatile and recently stood moderately lower. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on nearly 100 nations took effect overnight, including a 104% tariff on Chinese imports. On Wednesday, China said it would raise levies on U.S. imports to 84%, from 34%. Trump defended his tariffs at a Tuesday dinner with House Republicans and said levies on pharmaceutical imports will be announced “very shortly.”
Source: WSJ
Trump Signs Orders to Revive Coal, Rolls Back Climate Rules
Hard hats are back. So is “beautiful, clean” coal. President Trump signed four executive orders on Tuesday to try to bolster the country’s declining coal industry, including the lifting of restrictions on mining and burning of the dirtiest fossil fuel. In addition to waiving air pollution limits and other regulations on coal imposed by the Biden administration, Mr. Trump directed the Justice Department to go after states like California that have sought to tackle climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels.
Source: NYT
Trump Admin Revokes 500 Foreign Student Visas in University Crackdown
More than 500 foreign students have had their US visas revoked in recent weeks, as Donald Trump’s administration doubles down on its crackdown on universities. NAFSA, a network of universities and individuals engaged in international education and exchanges, told the Financial Times on Tuesday it had identified 500 visa revocations by compiling reports from higher education institutions across the US.
Source: FT
U.S.-Iran Talks to Start This Weekend
Talks between the United States and Iran, which President Trump said on Monday would begin on Saturday in Oman, face considerable problems of substance and well-earned mistrust. But time is short for what is likely to be a complicated negotiation. “We’re at a fork in the road, heading toward a crisis,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. While Mr. Trump has recently threatened Iran with “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,” he has also made it clear that he prefers a diplomatic deal. That reassurance — made in the Oval Office sitting next to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who has pressed for military action — will be welcomed widely in the Arab world.
Source: NYT
April 9, 1865: Robert E. Lee surrenders, ending US Civil War
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Sources
- https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-us-global-trade-war-5cc4e6f7?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_3 (WSJ)
- https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-09-25 (WSJ)
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/climate/trump-executive-orders-coal.html (NYT)
- https://www.ft.com/content/391209ea-5400-4afd-91af-ecc5526351a8 (FT)
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/world/europe/iran-nuclear-sanctions-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare (NYT)