April 7 2025

Global Markets Plunge as Trump Stands Firm on Tariffs

New Forecast: AI Systems Outsmart Humans, Spark Global Chaos by 2027

OPEC+ Surprises with Big Oil Output Hike, Prices Tank

Trump’s Tariffs Slam SE Asia’s Manufacturing, Upend Supply Chains

Fitch Downgrades China’s Debt, Cites Tariffs and Spending

Weekend Sports Highlights

GET THE CITIZEN JOURNAL APP - FREE!

1. Global Markets Plunge as Trump Stands Firm on Tariffs

Turmoil in global markets snowballed into one of the worst routs in recent memory after President Trump said he will stay the course with aggressive, economically disruptive tariffs. “What’s going to happen to the markets, I can’t tell you,” Trump said late Sunday. “I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.” Stock futures tumbled early Monday, with contracts tied to the major U.S. indexes recently down more than 2.5%, though the declines had been even steeper earlier in the day. If the pullback holds through regular trading hours, the broad S&P 500 index would be close to following the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into a bear market, often defined as following a 20%-plus decline from a recent peak. Wall Street's "fear gauge," the VIX, leapt to levels reminiscent of the Covid-19 meltdown and the global financial crisis, as investors braced for further volatility ahead. Global markets recoiled. In Asia, where many economies are highly trade-reliant, stocks plunged. Hong Kong's main equity benchmark lost 13%, in its worst day since the Asian financial crisis. Indexes in Shanghai, Taipei and Tokyo fell between 7% and 10%. The selloff didn't spare Europe, where the Stoxx Europe 600 sank more than 4%. Bitcoin and oil prices fell sharply. Treasurys rallied, pushing down yields, as investors bet the Federal Reserve will need to slash interest rates. Futures prices, likewise, showed traders now see a more than 50% likelihood of the equivalent of five or more quarter-point rate cuts this year.
Source: WSJ

2. New Forecast: AI Systems Outsmart Humans, Spark Global Chaos by 2027

The year is 2027. Powerful artificial intelligence systems are becoming smarter than humans, and are wreaking havoc on the global order. Chinese spies have stolen America’s A.I. secrets, and the White House is rushing to retaliate. Inside a leading A.I. lab, engineers are spooked to discover that their models are starting to deceive them, raising the possibility that they’ll go rogue. These aren’t scenes from a sci-fi screenplay. They’re scenarios envisioned by a nonprofit in Berkeley, Calif., called the A.I. Futures Project, which has spent the past year trying to predict what the world will look like over the next few years, as increasingly powerful A.I. systems are developed. The project is led by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI researcher who left the company last year over his concerns that it was acting recklessly. While at OpenAI, where he was on the governance team, Mr. Kokotajlo wrote detailed internal reports about how the race for artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I. — a fuzzy term for human-level machine intelligence — might unfold. After leaving, he teamed up with Eli Lifland, an A.I. researcher who had a track record of accurately forecasting world events. They got to work trying to predict A.I.’s next wave.
Source: NYT

3. OPEC+ Surprises with Big Oil Output Hike, Prices Tank

A. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to make a larger oil output hike in May in an unexpected move that further dragged on tariff-hit crude prices. After a meeting held online on Thursday, eight OPEC+ countries said they will increase output by 411,000 barrels a day next month–the equivalent of three monthly increments–citing “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive market outlook.” In afternoon trade in Europe, Brent crude slumped 7.1% to $69.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was down 7.8% to $66.15 a barrel. Losses are also fueled by widespread fears that U.S. President Trump’s latest tariff blitz could dampen global economic growth and demand for oil. OPEC+’s May increase is part of a broader plan to gradually unwind production curbs totaling 2.2 million barrels a day starting this month. The eight producers–namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman–made voluntary cuts in April and November 2023.

B. The deep-rooted, much-debated relationship between President Trump and Saudi Arabia will be front and center again on Friday, when Trump’s Florida golf course hosts a three-day tournament for the upstart LIV Golf circuit that is almost entirely funded by the kingdom’s sovereign-wealth fund. The ritzy tournament comes after Trump had one of the most significant weeks of his presidency, implementing his much-awaited tariff plan and causing U.S. markets to suffer their steepest declines since 2020. The president said he implemented the plan to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

Source: WSJ

4. Trump’s Tariffs Slam SE Asia’s Manufacturing, Upend Supply Chains

US President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs is set to land hardest on Asian manufacturing, throwing into disarray supply chains rejigged only recently to work around tensions with China, according to executives and analysts. The Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs bring the rate on imports from China to more than 60 per cent, representing the highest levels in the region. But manufacturers and economists said new tariffs of between 32 and 49 per cent on many south-east Asian economies come as a much bigger shock, undermining the “China plus one” strategy of using them as a second export manufacturing base. “The tariffs hit ‘Factory Asia’ hard,” Citi analysts said in a research note.
Source: FT

5. Fitch Downgrades China’s Debt, Cites Tariffs and Spending

Rating agency Fitch has downgraded China’s sovereign debt over concerns about weaker public finances and the impact of higher tariffs on exports, a move that prompted accusations of bias from Beijing. In a statement on Thursday, Fitch said its cut to China’s long-term foreign currency rating from A+ to A was based on forecasts made before US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of additional “reciprocal” tariffs of 34 per cent on Chinese goods. Fitch said its move reflected expectations that China would sharply increase spending in order to support economic growth and counter deflationary pressures amid rising tariffs that would weigh on external demand. “This support, along with a structural erosion in the revenue base, will likely keep fiscal deficits high,” the agency said
Source: FT

Weekend Sports Highlights

• NCAA Men's Basketball Final Set: All four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for only the second time since 2008, with Florida and Houston advancing to Monday's championship game after dramatic semifinal wins. Florida seeks its third title while Houston aims for its first after going 0-2 in previous finals.

• Ovechkin Makes History: Alex Ovechkin has surpassed Wayne Gretzky's long-standing NHL record by scoring his 895th career goal, cementing his legacy as hockey's greatest goal scorer.

• UConn Women Claim 12th Title: The Huskies dominated South Carolina 82-59 in Sunday's NCAA Women's Basketball Championship, securing a record-breaking 12th national title and reinforcing their dynasty status in women's college basketball.

Editors note: nbd but my bracket had all final four teams correct and a Florida-Houston final, healing wounds created by finishing last in fantasy football for 2 consecutive years. If you’re curious how this translates to ranking, I’m ranked 7,000th in America, in the 99.9th percentile. I picked Florida to win it.

What the ESPN app looks like with a 99.9 pct bracket

April 7, 1979: Astros’ Ken Forsch pitches no-hitter, matching feat by his brother

Nearly a year after his brother Bob pitched a no-hitter, Houston Astros pitcher Ken Forsch tosses his first career no-hitter. Ken and Bob become the first—and only—brothers to pitch official no-hitters in Major League Baseball history.

SUBSCRIBE ONLINE TO GET THE US CITIZEN JOURNAL IN YOUR INBOX - FREE!

See the Ad Astra Podcast! Released on Apple and Spotify around 10a CST.

Sponsors (click me!)

Sources

1. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25?st=cKL9k4&reflink=article_copyURL_share (WSJ)
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/ai-futures-project-ai-2027.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare (NYT)
3. https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/opec-to-make-larger-output-hike-in-may-42a5e46f?st=etjmto&reflink=article_copyURL_share and https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/the-trump-saudi-relationship-behind-liv-golf-f1731214 (WSJ)
4. https://on.ft.com/4hSJRHv (FT)
5. https://on.ft.com/3XIJVTg (FT)